Tag: end of civilisation

How Gulf Oil Disruptions Threaten Australia and New Zealand’s Energy Security

The Global Context: A Crisis Without Precedent

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created what the International Energy Agency calls “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” . Flows through the Strait—normally carrying 20 million barrels daily—have fallen to “a trickle,” with oil exports from Gulf producers dropping from approximately 20 million barrels per day to just 3.8 mb/d in early April .

This isn’t just about crude oil. The crisis has triggered unprecedented price spikes in refined products, with Singapore middle distillate prices reaching all-time highs above $290/barrel . For Australia and New Zealand—nations at the end of global supply chains—the implications are immediate and severe.

Price Forecasts: What to Expect by June 2026

Given that the war against Iran by Israel and the US is an existential one for Iran- i.e. Israel, and likely the US’s intent, is to destroy Iran as a cohesive state and break it into statelets who can no longer pose a threat to Israel’s Greater Israel project or disrupt future US control over Iranian oil, any peace agreement for Iran must include continued control over the State of Hormuz to ensure the state of Iran’s continued viability. It is unlikely that the US will concede to this in the short to medium term, especially given the control that Israel currently has over US foreign policy.

Additionally, should the US attempt further substantial attacks on Iranian infrastructure after the ceasefire likely ends on May 20th 2026, Iran has promised to destroy other Gulf States energy infrastructure.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or severely constrained through June 2026 or longer, energy markets face a prolonged supply crisis with cascading price effects:

Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices

ProductCurrent/Recent PriceJune 2026 Forecast (Hormuz Closed)Source
Brent Crude~$103/bbl (March avg)$115+/bbl (EIA peak forecast for Q2 2026)
Singapore Gasoil (Diesel)$192/bbl (April)$200-250+/bbl (IEA alternative scenario)
Singapore Jet FuelSurged 114% since Feb 28$250-300+/bbl (record highs sustained)
VLSFO (Bunker Fuel)S$2.30/litre (Singapore)S$2.50-3.00+/litre (competing demand from refiners)
Australian Retail DieselAUD $3.20+/litreAUD $3.50-4.00+/litre (potential doubling if crisis persists)
Australian Retail Petrol~$2.20/litre (post-excise cut)AUD $2.50-3.00/litre
US Retail Diesel~$5.80/gallon (April peak)$6.00-7.00+/gallon

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has presented two scenarios: a base case assuming gradual resumption of Hormuz flows by mid-year, and an alternative “prolonged conflict” case where “energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come”. Under the prolonged conflict scenario, physical crude prices could sustain levels near $150/bbl, with refined products trading at unprecedented premiums .

As of mid-April 2026, oil futures traders are maintaining an almost constant West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price per barrel of around $100 US, while real Dated oil prices hover around the $140 mark. Futures traders are for some reason responding to oft repeated wild claims by Trump that victory, a peace agreement or at least an opening of the Straits, is imminent.

The IEA estimates it will take 2 years for global oil supplies to return to their previous levels once the Strait is reopened because of the extensive damage to Gulf refineries, storage facilities and docks.

Key Price Drivers

  • Diesel shortage structural: The IEA estimates 3-4 million barrels per day of diesel supply loss (5-12% of global consumption) directly tied to Hormuz disruptions
  • Refinery capacity offline: Middle East and Asian refineries cut runs by ~6 mb/d in April, tightening global product markets
  • Brent-WTI spread widening: The spread reached $12/bbl in March and is projected to peak at $15/bbl in April, reflecting Asian supply anxiety

Australia: The Diesel Nation at Breaking Point

The Dependency Problem

Australia is perhaps the most vulnerable developed nation to a liquid fuel emergency. In FY2021, 91% of all fuel consumed in Australia was imported—including 68% as refined products and imported crude for our remaining refineries .

Over the past 20 years, Australia like many other Western countries has substantially reduced the number of oil refineries on shore, opting instead for those refineries to become solely storage facilities for distilled oil products; predominantly from Asia. Two active refineries remain in Australia with the smaller one recently impacted by a refinery fire.

Australia sits at the end of a complex supply chain stretching thousands of kilometers from Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, and Japan. While only a small fraction of their diesel imports come directly from the Middle East, almost half of the crude oil for production of that diesel originates in the Middle East when traced back through those Asian refineries.

The Diesel Consumption Profile

Australia’s economy runs on diesel. In 2025, the nation consumed approximately 35 billion litres of diesel—far exceeding the 15 billion litres of petrol and 10 billion litres of aviation fuel . The consumption breakdown reveals critical vulnerabilities:Table

SectorDiesel ShareAnnual ConsumptionVulnerability Level
Mining40% of total diesel~14 billion litresCRITICAL
Road Transport/Trucking24%~8.4 billion litresHIGH
Agriculture8%~2.8 billion litresHIGH
Manufacturing7%~2.5 billion litresMEDIUM
Marine/RailSignificant~3+ billion litresMEDIUM
Passenger Vehicles~25% of remainder~4+ billion litresMEDIUM

Australia has one of the highest per capita diesel demands in the world—7.4 barrels per person annually—far exceeding the US and other major economies .

The Refinery Crisis

Australia’s domestic refining capacity has collapsed. Five refineries closed over the last decade, leaving just two operational: Ampol’s Lytton refinery in Brisbane and Viva’s Geelong refinery in Victoria. These facilities were already struggling before the current crisis—and then came the April 2026 fire at Geelong.

The fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery—built in the 1950s—shut down critical units. As analyst Kevin Morrison noted: “This creates the conditions for higher prices, as it pushes up international demand for refined products when supply is massively constrained. It could not happen at a worse time.” Victoria alone consumes 252,000 barrels of fuel daily—41% diesel, 22% jet fuel—and now faces sourcing these volumes from already-tight Asian markets.

The structural problem? Our remaining refineries are configured to produce mostly petrol rather than aviation fuel and diesel—precisely the fuels most critical for agriculture, road freight, mining, and defense .

Stockholding: The 90-Day Myth

Australia has been in breach of International Energy Agency (IEA) obligations since 2012. The IEA requires 90 days of net import coverage; Australia holds just 68 IEA days, and when measured against actual consumption, this equates to roughly 30-34 days of real fuel security .

The government counts “fuel in transit”—on foreign-flagged tankers in foreign ports—toward reserves. But as the Australia Institute notes: “In the event of a global emergency, there is no guarantee that the oil that Australia has been promised access to… would be practically accessible.” These ships are not Australian vessels; they sail under foreign flags and owe no allegiance to Australian fuel security.

With the Strait closed, Australia is now pulling diesel along some of the longest and most expensive trade routes in the world—13,000-mile journeys from the US Gulf Coast taking up to two months .

Mining Sector: The $4.5 Billion Diesel Addiction

The mining industry is Australia’s most diesel-exposed sector, consuming approximately 9.6 billion litres annually—roughly 40% of national diesel consumption and 10% of total national energy use . The sector operates more than 50,000 large diesel-powered trucks, each consuming approximately 900,000 litres annually .

Cost Impact Calculations:

  • At pre-crisis diesel prices (~AUD $1.75/litre), a large mine’s annual fuel bill for a 200hp tractor running 1,500 hours was ~$74,000
  • At current prices (~AUD $2.25-2.50/litre), that same operation costs $100,000-112,000 annually—a 35-50% increase
  • If prices reach $3.50-4.00/litre by June, costs could double from the original baseline

According to S&P Global and BMO estimates using Wood Mackenzie data, every 10% increase in oil prices drives mining cost increases of:

  • Iron ore: +4.2% mining costs
  • Copper: +3.5% mining costs
  • Gold: +2% mining costs

With crude oil potentially averaging $100+/bbl (47% above 2025 average), mining costs could rise 16-20% for bulk commodities .

Operational Risks: The mining industry faces a shutdown timeline measured in weeks if diesel supplies are interrupted:

  • Best-positioned mines: 4-8 weeks of operational capacity
  • Typical remote diesel-heavy mines: 2-6 weeks before curtailment
  • Weakest operations: Days to 2 weeks

The ASX Materials Index has already plunged 20.3% since the conflict began, with fund managers dumping stocks amid fears of fuel shortages forcing production cuts .

Agriculture: Harvest Season Crisis

Australian agriculture consumes approximately 2.5 billion litres of diesel annually, with diesel accounting for 84% of on-farm energy consumption . The crisis has hit at the worst possible time—during harvest season when fuel demand peaks .

Impact on Farm Economics:

  • A farm using 80,000 litres annually faced fuel costs of ~$140,000 at $1.75/litre pre-crisis
  • At current $2.25+/litre, costs have jumped to $180,000+ annually—a $40,000+ increase per farm
  • If diesel reaches $3.50/litre by June, that same farm faces $280,000 annual fuel costs—double pre-crisis levels

Farmers are already making critical decisions about whether to proceed with crops given uncertainty about diesel allocations later in the year . Adding diesel and freight costs means nearly 60% of farmers’ cost base is increasing rapidly .

The Fuel Tax Credits Scheme (FTCS)—which provides AU$4.5 billion annually to mining and AU$1.3 billion to agriculture—has become a critical but increasingly inadequate buffer .

Food Supply Chain: From Farm to Shelf

Australia’s food supply chain is diesel-dependent at every stage:

  • Production: Tractors, harvesters, irrigation pumps
  • Processing: Generators, machinery
  • Distribution: Road trains, trucking (24% of national diesel consumption)

Higher diesel costs cascade through the food system:

  • Transport costs increase directly with fuel prices
  • Processing costs rise due to diesel-powered equipment
  • Retail prices must absorb these increases or face margin compression

The Australian Industry Group warns that disruption to fuel markets creates cascading supply chain impacts, with businesses already reporting fuel-related operational challenges .

Tourism and Aviation

The tourism sector faces a triple hit:

  1. Jet fuel costs: Singapore jet fuel surged 114% since February 28
  2. Airfare increases: AirAsia X has increased fares by up to 40% due to fuel costs
  3. Ground transport: Higher petrol and diesel costs affect rental cars, tour buses, and visitor travel patterns

Air New Zealand has already canceled 1,100 flights impacting over 44,000 passengers between March and early May due to fuel cost pressures .

The Australian Government Response

On March 30, 2026, the Australian National Cabinet activated the National Fuel Security Plan, currently at Level 2 (“Keeping Australia Moving”) . Measures include:

  • Halving fuel excise from 52.6 cents to 20.6 cents per litre for three months
  • Temporarily reducing minimum stockholding obligations by 20% for diesel and petrol
  • Amending fuel quality standards to allow higher sulfur levels, releasing ~100 million litres/month of additional petrol supply
  • Appointing a Fuel Security Taskforce Coordinator
  • Underwriting additional fuel cargoes and strategic reserves

However, energy analysts question whether the excise cut was optimally targeted. Macquarie University’s Lurion De Mello notes: “Petrol is not the pain point. Diesel is the pain point” . Deakin University’s Samantha Hepburn warns: “Any disruption in diesel supply or sustained high prices… will directly affect production capacity, increase operating costs and ultimately push up food prices” .

The Australia Institute recommends accelerating electric vehicle adoption to reduce petrol demand, thereby freeing refining capacity for diesel and jet fuel security .

New Zealand: The Marsden Point Gamble

The Refinery Closure Decision

New Zealand made a calculated bet in 2022—and now faces the consequences. The Marsden Point refinery, which produced half the country’s petrol, two-thirds of diesel, and most jet fuel, was converted to an import terminal. The rationale was economic: the refinery was inefficient by international standards, and importing refined products from mega-refineries in Asia was cheaper.

The government and industry argued this improved security: “Closing the refinery has actually improved our security of supply, as there is now more than twice as much fuel on the water to replenish domestic stocks than when we produced it locally.”

But this logic contains a fatal flaw. New Zealand no longer imports crude oil—but the Asian refineries we depend on do. In 2024, New Zealand’s top four source countries (Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan) sourced almost 80% of their crude oil imports from Persian Gulf countries .

As MFAT’s July 2025 analysis states: “In the event of disruption of Middle Eastern supply, Asian refineries would be forced to source crude product from elsewhere, pushing up the global price for oil” . New Zealand faces indirect but severe exposure to Gulf disruptions through our refined product suppliers.

Current stock levels provide approximately 47 days of diesel, 51 days of petrol, and 49 days of jet fuel coverage—better than Australia but still precarious if Asian refining capacity falters .

As of mid-April 2026, the New Zealand government’s sole strategy has been to monitor the volume and consequent days left of the various oil substrates in the country. The reality is that the risks to New Zealand’s economy are the combined factors of stocks available and the cost at the pump of those stocks New Zealand may well find that by June there are still tankers available to supply oil substrates to New Zealand but at a price that is unaffordable to the public.

Already truck operators are warning of hugely increased supermarket food prices in the pipeline because of the massively increased transport costs involved in supplying the supermarkets from New Zealand’s highly centralised grocery supply chain. Decentralisation of essential services across new Zealand is thus a very urgent priority.

Economic Impact Forecasts

ASB Bank has downgraded New Zealand’s growth outlook due to the fuel crisis, forecasting:

  • GDP growth slowing through 2026
  • Inflation rising toward 4% before easing in 2027
  • Households facing $4,000-6,000 annual hit if fuel prices stay elevated

Westpac identifies tourism as particularly vulnerable, forecasting that “the most direct impact of the shock on exports will likely show up in falling visitor numbers” due to flight disruptions, higher airfares, and consumer reluctance to travel internationally during heightened tensions .

Tourism Sector Impact

New Zealand’s tourism sector—still recovering from COVID-19—faces severe headwinds:

  • Flight cancellations and route reductions: Air New Zealand has already cut capacity
  • Higher airfares: Jet fuel costs have surged 114%, forcing ticket price increases
  • Reduced international visitor numbers: Westpac expects reversal of recent strong growth in arrivals
  • Domestic tourism pressure: Higher petrol prices reduce Kiwis’ willingness to travel domestically

Regional Variations: Regions dependent on self-drive tourism—West Coast, Tasman, Southland, Gisborne—face particular pressure. These areas already have disproportionate visitor spending on fuel, primarily because of a lack of local international airports, making them vulnerable to petrol price volatility .

Tourism Industry Aotearoa reports businesses are experiencing “sharp increase in business costs as a result of the leap in fuel prices” . The NZX50 fell nearly 6% in March 2026, with travel and tourism stocks—including Serko, Air New Zealand, Tourism Holdings, SkyCity Entertainment, and Auckland International Airport—among the hardest hit .

The Political Reckoning

The Marsden Point closure has become politically contentious. New Zealand First MP Shane Jones, now Associate Energy Minister, has called the previous government’s decision “reckless.” Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold has challenged critics: “Would you close it if it was open today?”

Reopening Marsden Point is likely impossible. The refinery was configured to process imported Middle Eastern crude—not New Zealand’s own light, sweet domestic production, which is entirely exported. Even if the infrastructure remained intact (it doesn’t), the facility couldn’t process local oil.

Government Response

New Zealand has activated its Fuel Response Plan 2026, currently in Phase 1: Watchful . The plan outlines four clear phases responding proportionately to fuel security risks, assessed separately for petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. The government is:

  • Monitoring fuel stocks and shipments
  • Publishing twice-weekly stock updates
  • Coordinating with international partners
  • Preparing demand reduction measures if needed

MBIE emphasizes: “There is no need to change how you purchase fuel. Sticking to your usual habits helps keep the system running smoothly” .

However this ‘plan” does not seem to acknowledge the high probability of both lack of, and high prices for diesel, jet fuel and bunker oil in the longer term. Strategies that prioritise and create backup storage now for essential fuel service issues such as food transportation and health and emergency services are sadly lacking.

Its also important to acknowledge that for New Zealand to continue to received international shipping and jet flights it needs to have adequate fuel storage for that transport to return to their original port.

The Bunker Fuel Dimension

Both Australia and New Zealand face parallel challenges with marine fuel. Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO)—the 0.5% sulphur fuel required by IMO 2020 regulations—depends on specific low-sulphur crude grades that are now being competed for by refiners seeking diesel replacements.

Australian and New Zealand ports rely on Singapore and regional refineries for bunker fuel. As Vortexa analysis warns: with Hormuz disruptions, bunkering hubs like Singapore, Malaysia, and the Netherlands could face VLSFO supply shortages as refiners outbid bunker blenders for suitable crude grades .

This threatens not just commercial shipping but coastal trade, fishing fleets, and offshore industries that keep both economies functioning.

Strategic Implications & Recommendations

For Australia:

  1. Diesel is the vital risk: Agriculture, mining, and road freight depend on diesel. The BADSP program addresses storage but not supply diversity .
  2. Refining vulnerability: Two aging refineries cannot meet national demand. The Geelong fire demonstrates how quickly capacity can be lost .
  3. Transit risk: 21+ days of “reserves” exist only on paper—on foreign ships that may never arrive in a crisis .
  4. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve access: The 2020 agreement to access US reserves sounds reassuring, but fuel would take three weeks to reach Australia—and in a global crisis, American domestic needs would take precedence .
  5. Mining sector transition: Rio Tinto’s renewable diesel trials at Boron and Kennecott mines show potential, but these transitions were planned for 2030-2050—not 2026 .

For New Zealand:

  1. Refined product dependency: 100% reliance on Asian refineries creates single-point-of-failure risk .
  2. Indirect Gulf exposure: While NZ doesn’t import Gulf crude directly, our suppliers do—making us hostage to their sourcing challenges .
  3. Storage limitations: Current stock levels are adequate for normal operations but insufficient for prolonged disruption .
  4. No refining fallback: Unlike Australia, New Zealand has zero domestic refining capacity to fall back on .
  5. Tourism vulnerability: The sector’s recovery from COVID-19 faces reversal due to fuel costs and flight disruptions .

And let us also not forget the hugely significant global impacts of the loss of 20% of the world’s synthetic fertilisers, of sulphuric acid, and of LNG because of the Straits’ closure and the partial destruction of refining in the Gulf states.

The Path Forward

Both nations face the same fundamental challenge: they are price-takers in a volatile market, with limited ability to influence supply or substitute fuels in the short term.

Both Australia and New Zealand have optimised for economic efficiency (Just In Time processes) over energy security. In a world of renewed geopolitical conflict and supply chain fragility, that calculation desperately needs revision.

Increasing frequency and intensity of global weather events will undoubtedly and increasingly put severe pressure on global supply chains . Transitioning to a less oil dependant economy and one which is less dependant on global supply chains for all essential services, is vital.

Sources:

  • Australia Institute: “Over a Barrel: Addressing Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security”
  • Australian Government: National Fuel Security Plan
  • Australian Industry Group: “Fuel Supply and Supply Chain Watch”
  • ABC News: “Energy analysts raise concerns on fuel excise cut”
  • Commonwealth Bank: “How Aussie farmers are navigating fuel and fertiliser pressures”
  • Deloitte Access Economics via Financial Post: “Australian Fuel Supply to Get Even Tighter After Refinery Fire”
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026
  • Fortune: “Oil prices may be falling, but for the wrong reason”
  • IEA Oil Market Report, April 2026
  • IEEFA: “Mining’s costly diesel addiction must be a budget priority”
  • Living More With Less: “Implications of the Iran war on Australia’s Fuel Supplies”
  • MFAT: “NZ economy not immune to conflict in the Middle East”
  • MBIE: “Middle East conflict and New Zealand’s fuel stocks”
  • Newsroom: “Economic growth forecasts downgraded as fuel price rise bites”
  • NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment: “Understanding variability in tourism spend”
  • P2P Agri: “Iran Fuel Crisis and Australian Farm Costs”
  • RenewEconomy: “Diesel replacement: Australia’s billion-dollar opportunity”
  • The Oregon Group: “Strait of Hormuz diesel shock threatens mining industry”
  • Transporting NZ: “Energy security – was closing Marsden Point a mistake?”
  • Vortexa/IEA analysis on VLSFO supply and bunker fuel markets
  • Westpac IQ: “NZ business feedback on recent oil price moves”
  • World Socialist Web Site: “War-driven fuel crisis threatens recession in Australia”
  • https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/the-limits-to-the-energy-transition

Biocentrism (Kaitiakitanga): the only future we have

Bill Mollison , the brilliant developer of the concepts and actions of permaculture once said; “We are not superior to other life-forms; all living things are an expression of Life. If we could see that truth, we would see that everything we do to other life-forms we also do to ourselves. A culture which understands this does not, without absolute necessity, destroy any living thing” .

Biocentrism in environmental ethics emphasizes that all living things have intrinsic value and moral standing. It extends moral consideration beyond human beings to encompass the entire biosphere. This perspective suggests that every living organism, whether sentient or not, possesses a right to exist and be protected. 

Such a human culture, is able to live, sustainably alongside its fellow species. Able to acknowledge that all species are part of the web of life that also supports humans. Without that web, humanity, and most other current species, will inevitably die.

Anthropocentrism: the belief that human beings have superiority over nature has driven 6000 years of human’s ecological destruction, biodiversity loss, and now climate crises. This worldview contrasts sharply with Indigenous perspectives (like kaitiakitanga) and emerging ecological ethics that argue for biocentrism (all life has intrinsic value) or ecocentrism (whole ecosystems matter).

Anthropocentrism’s drivers appear to be derived from humanity’s view that the attributes that humans have- particularly the capacity to manipulate his/her environment, make humans a superior being to all other species on the planet. Our self-defined view of what is superior is derived from our own attributes; rather like an elephant determining that it is superior to all other species because it can reach high places with its trunk.

However our “superior” capacity to manipulate our environment is also our downfall; through 4000 years of manipulation of the natural world around us we have progressively destroyed the living world we rely on to survive.

Many like to think that if we did not have capitalism, we would somehow return to a world where humans could co-habitat in sustainable peace with other species – however it is clear that capitalism is simply one of many manifestations of anthropocentrism. Our belief in our inherent superiority allows us to consider capitalism and the pursuit of ‘wealth” by exploiting and destroying other living things as though that had no cost, as a sane objective.

6000 years ago, humanity’s anthroprocentric view of the world did not impact on the rest of the natural world as it does now. There were perhaps 7 million humans in the world, mainly hunter/gatherers who made use of the environment around them, but whose capacity to create systemic damage to the living world was limited in scale. As our capacity increased to not only defend ourselves against more ‘naturally’ efficient predators but also to kill and destroy other living things, so did the human population. Within two thousand years , the global human population had exploded to 160 million. In 2025 the global human population is estimated at around 8.2 billion people. Most humans now live in towns and cities ( what the Romans called ‘civis” – or ‘civilisation’). Surrounded by an inanimate world of asphalt and concrete we have lost our link with the rest of nature. We do not see its value because we cannot see it- except perhaps to see it as ‘entertainment on a hiking trip in the ‘wilds’.

Many of the world’s religions, particularly but not exclusively, the Abrahamaic religions of Judea, Christ and Mecca instruct their followers to believe in humanity as superior beings before their god.

Perhaps part of that wanton destruction has been because humans not only do not understand the inter-relationships between living things, but are also largely oblivious to the living things around us- the insects, the microbes, the fungi, the birds and mammals that help sustain our lives. We do not see how we are ourselves inextricably woven into that intricate web of life.

This sense of superiority has also led humans to become largely compassion-less for the suffering of others- except perhaps for those people and other animals that we focus our attention on and value for whatever reason. e.g. Cats, dogs, dolphins, whales are somehow living things to be valued- but sheep cattle, rats mice can be killed mercilessly; they do not suit our purposes. Or, as in New Zealand, humans may decide that this living animal is to be exterminated because we value this other living species – it is perhaps cuter, more indigenous, more suitable, more useful for exploitation.

Like most other species on earth, humans do not have the capacity to view the world long-term. We are oblivious to the ever encroaching tide year by year of concrete and asphalt into the living world, or of the one more old growth tree cut down to make way for ‘progress’. We cannot see what we have so tragically lost and the many lives we have destroyed.

If we are to save this planet from ourselves, we must re-learn how to value ALL living things; to see their beauty, their intrinsic value , their importance- and to act with compassion to all living things.

Without that compassion, we may continue to find fine and ultimately futile ways to lower our carbon footprint while we continue to destroy the rest of the living world, but we are nevertheless simply hastening our species’ (and many others) demise.

We can start now. Instead of our media pushing us to buy more and more ‘things’, or to travel here or there-we need our media to begin displaying how it is to become interlinked with our world. To grow trees in every back garden and park, to teach young people that they do not need to be ‘somebody’ important- but instead to be kind and caring to all, to learn how to be at ease with what we have; to ‘need’ less.

Politicians need to understand that GDP is a meaningless piece of garbage that does nothing to improve human’s quality of life and certainaly nothing to sustain our living world.

Politicians also need to be educated to understand the vital importance of bringing an end to anthroprocentrism; that given the destruction we have caused, we must now become true guardians of the natural world or ‘kaitiaki’ as New Zealand’s Maori say. We must make more and more of our living world legislatively sacred -that all of nature itself has rights or ‘personhood’, like the sacred Whanganui River in New Zealand.

Links

Introduction to Permaculture Bill Mollison Tagari Publications Tasmania, (2011) Page 1

Understanding Our Collapsing World- https://open.substack.com/pub/predicament/p/understanding-our-collapsing-world

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/14/rights-of-nature-laws-gaining-momentum

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/intrinsic-value-ecology-and-conservation-25815400/

https://link.springer.com/rwe/10.1007/978-3-319-09483-0_41

‘Cant Find My Way Home’

The heading for this post comes from one of the great compositions by Stevie Winwood and the UK band ‘Blind Faith’ in 1969.

It perhaps symbolises in 2024, the journey this human world is travelling and its likely future…

A world where pointless and savage wars in West Asia, Ukraine and Africa are spurred on by the quest for power and profit and where infantile ideologies predominate.

And a world where climate change continues its seemingly inexorable march towards a planet destroyed through the pure blind stupidity and ignorance of our ‘world leaders’.

Never before have we all been able to witness the savage brutality of a war of genocide in technicolour- never before have we seen Western media and politicians proselytising so blatantly for that inhumanity. An oh so stark reminder of the difference between Western weasel words about ‘freedom and democracy’ and their support of mass-murder when it profits them.

A reminder too that this has been the Western theme for 500 years of colonial exploitation of more vulnerable populations- that these centuries of exploitation are, in the immortal words in 2022 of EU’s blatantly racist and furiously stupid foreign policy chief Josep Borrell,  the reason why Europe and the West is a garden and the rest of the world (in his view), a jungle.

To support this meme, our Western mainstream media continues to idolise the fiction of Western supremacy in all things. As the evidence that this is no longer the case continues to pile up, Western media have resorted to ever greater contortions and lies to support that meme. The recent violence in Amsterdam between Israeli and Dutch football fans – characterised as ‘antisemitism’ is just one of many examples.

Time and time again we have seen European (and U.S. ) political leaders make decisions based on an outdated and irrelevant ideology which ignores all rationality and the reality of the situation.

The most telling, and likely deadly, example of this, is their farcical contortions to prove to their electorates that they doing something about climate change when they are in fact doing worse than nothing. There are no reductions in CO2 emissions, and the hype about the electrification of energy and transport is just that- electrification is not substituting for coal or oil, it comes as an addition to the continuing use of high rates of coal and oil burning.

Our ‘civilisation;’ is locked into endless ‘growth’ (an awful word given that economic ‘growth’ is the total opposite of true organic living growth) – a paradigm that is destroying the planet, but from which we apparently have no wish to escape from.

While climate and environmental scientists have long been steadily ratcheting up their estimations of the devastating impacts of global warming and biodiversity to the living fabric of our world, it is only now that economists from the ‘Network for Greening the Financial System’ are beginning to estimate the true fiscal costs to climate warming- something that could and should have been done 50 years ago, as it would have provided some leverage for real change in this money obsessed world. In the latest estimates economists estimate that global GDP will contract by 33% by 2100 from a 3C rise in global average surface temperatures. That 33% reduction in global GDP is almost certainly a huge underestimation of the real fiscal costs of global warming.

That ‘canary in the coalmine’ early warning system for economies, the cost of insurance, is already rising rapidly as a result of the rapidly increasing unpredictability of our climate systems.

We still do not know for certain what is going to happen to global sea currents and sea level rise as a result of ice melt , but early indications are that there will be a complete collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) within a few decades. When that collapse occurs, not only will much of the Northern Hemisphere become much colder, but the Southern Hemisphere will warm much much faster.

If that’s not enough, the 1972 bestseller Limits to Growth (LtG) authors (70 years ago) concluded that, if global society kept pursuing economic growth, it would experience a decline in food production, industrial output, and ultimately population, within this century. Recent remodelling of that study indicate ‘a halt in welfare, food, and industrial production over the next decade or so, which puts into question the suitability of continuous economic growth as humanity’s goal in the twenty-first century.’

And then we can go to the annual farce of the COP global conferences: the pretence that global leaders are in fact doing something about climate change, when in fact they are doing less than nothing- actively promoting more oil and gas exploration and consumption because endless ‘growth’ on a finite planet is a logical and sensible thing to do -isn’t it?

To hold everything together, so that we don’t lose our trajectory and deviate from accelerating over the climate change cliff, our mainstream and social media incessantly promotes consumption and the vital importance of the constant expansion of each country’s mythical GDP.

Have we completely forgotten our way home?

_______________________________________

References

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/08/climate-breakdown-will-hit-global-growth-by-a-third-say-central-banks

Click to access climate-emergency-final-report.pdf

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jiec.13084

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/editorial/editorial-cop29-climate-summit-is-indeed-like-a-dark-joke-given-the-lack-of-buy-in-from-world-leaders/a131893267.html

Humans’ ‘Intelligence’

I was reminded of human beings’ selective cognition by a wonderful recent quote from Patrick Lawrence: ‘The core purpose of ideology is to preclude all need of thinking of any kind’.

As Patrick succinctly points out- frameworks for thinking necessarily limit what we can see and understand- what is outside the framework is often invisible, and unknown to us, or simply incomprehensible or dangerous.

We are of course all limited by pre-determined reference points in our attempt to understand how the world works. The subtle and not so subtle messages we acquire by osmosis for those who care for us (or don’t) in our early formative years. There are a multitude of hypotheses about how that works- from Freud to Piaget to Vygotsky to Stephen Krashen.

Suffice to say that who we become and how we perceive the world is largely determined by our environment, and that environment is, in our early years at least, predetermined by others and random events that impact us. But even those ‘random events’ will be framed in our consciousness by what we have experienced before. One person’s experience and response to an event will often be entirely different to anothers..

And while our childhood provides the strongest framework for perception which may last our lifetime, we are constantly being impacted by new experiences which may subtly, or not so subtly, impact that framework; the experience of trauma for instance can profoundly rewire that mental framework.

And as that wired framework becomes more solid and impermeable to new experience, the lifelong construction of our egos begins. New experiences begin to predominantly simply validate our previous experience and mental framework, rather than providing new insights on the world and ourselves; we become progressively ‘locked-in’ to being ‘this particular person’- or rather this particular ego construction. Validation and inflation of the ego becomes the predominant ‘mind-set’ for many human beings for the remainder of their lives. In a way, our egos take up the brain space that might have been left for inspiration and insight!

And in addition, (going back to Patrick Lancaster’s point), we might choose one or other ideology, or fixed mindset, to further validate that sense of who we ‘think’ we are, and which group of humans we believe we belong to.

Taking all that into account, we might guess that those humans who desire to becomes ‘leaders’ of a particular section of the human race; their predominant driving force is not the furtherance of the good of that group they wish to lead – but the furtherance of their own egos. Once their egos are partially satisfied with that power that leadership endows, there is only one way forward; more power and a larger inflated ego!

And, as we have just stated, the bigger the ego,the smaller resultant brain power there is available to respond to events in innovative and open ways; the cliched, the prejudiced, the racist, or the violent response, is what comes first and easiest.

As 2024 begins to unfold in a multitude of often violent tumultuous ways, it is becoming abundantly clear that our current global leaders are definitively, not up to the job. Whether it be the weather balloon sized egos of Trudeau or Macron, the ruthless egos of Putin or Xi Jinping, or the demented ego of Joe Biden determined to bring the world down around his ears as his dementia unfolds. And let us not forget the pyschopaths like Israel’s Netanyahu, or the excessive intellectual limitations of Germany’s Olaf Sholtz or Britain’s Rishi Sunak!

And lets not go anywhere near Ukrainian comedians who become politicians!

With potential emergencies like global wars initiated in Ukraine or Taiwan, and the very real mammoth global disaster that is global warming and bio-diversity loss, the world desperately needs leaders who can put aside their egos, who can bring people together with really innovative ideas, and who then have the courage to make those ideas happen, for a sustainable and more peaceful world!

What global structure do we need to make that leadership pool happen?

Welcome to 2024! 

Media in an Unstable World

The world for humans continues to become more uncertain and more unstable; although you would largely not know that from our mainstream media. Climate Change is a little problem but we are working on it ,they say. Lets just ignore that we nowhere near achieving any of our much vaunted global targets of containing, let alone reducing, Co2 emissions- we are therefore definitely heading for global climate disasters in less than a decade.

Catastrophes like the recent flood devastation in Dera in Libya are third world issues, not our problem (and absolutely nothing to do with the avaricious Western world’s destruction of Gadaffi’s prosperous Libya (and his brutal death with a bayonet up his anus by Western supported jihadists, which US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton subsequently delightedly cackled about).

We are witness to an existential war in Ukraine, where, we are told, Ukraine will inevitable triumph against Putin and the evil Russians, but where in fact the West continues to coerce the Ukrainian military into sending thousands and thousands of its troops into slaughter against overwhelming superiority of Russian arms (Russian total air superiority, vast mine fields and overwhelming artillery capacity) .

And once independent academic analysts like Robert Patman in New Zealand along with the rest of the West, now regurgitate the nonsense of China being a threat to the West (and to New Zealand) and thus the appropriateness and necessity of the West continuing its brutal and sadistic “rule based international order” to confront both Russia and China.

Strangely too we hear very little mention in Western mainstream media of the drumbeat of a new multi-polar world. A world where the West can no longer dictate the economic terms through violence, war and blackmail of the South. Perhaps the images of African Sahel countries finally booting out their French colonial occupation forces raises some eyebrows in countries other than France, but there appears little recognition that this anti -Western movement is gaining steam across the South.

And strangely we how somehow not informed by mainstream media that the $6 billion that the US government has now so generously released to suppliers of essential goods to the Iranian population for the release of five Americans held by Iran for spying, was in fact Iranian state money stolen by the United States with their unilateral illegal sanctions against Iran, because of Iran’s non-existent nuclear weapons development.

Or perhaps you missed the very quiet admission by the US’s General Milley recently that the much hyped Chinese ‘spy’ balloons that drifted over the United States in February 2023 actually didn’t have any spy gear installed on them at all.

But hey, who needs facts when you need to inflame good white folks against the evil Russians,Chinese and Iranians ( let alone the North Koreans that the US committed 3 years of brutal genocide against in the Korean War).

And let’s just forget about climate change, what is more important than ensuring our global economy and consumerism keeps expanding?- right to the very end…

_________________________

Links

Climate Collapse – The Grim Silence Of Our Leaders
New Zealand’s priority is helping defeat Russia in Ukraine
Why the media aren’t telling the whole story of Libya’s floods
Why the media aren’t telling the whole story of Libya’s floods

How Americans released in swap deal engaged in espionage activities in Iran (presstv.ir)

Boiling Frogs-again…

You of course know the old (true) metaphor) that frogs in a pot which is slowly heated up, can’t register when the water is too hot for their survival and get boiled alive..

Well, something very similar is now happening for humans across the Northern hemisphere.

Source photo: https://showyourstripes.info/c/europe/all

And something very similar is likely to begin occurring in the Southern Hemisphere in early 2024 with the advent of El Nino and the rapid rise in Pacific ocean temperatures.

Source: https://research.csiro.au/acc/fifty-years-of-carbon-dioxide-co2-measurements-in-the-background-atmosphere-of-se-australia/

But it’s obviously all ok, because all our politicians around the world have far more important things to worry about– their next election defeat for starters, cosying up to big business for another, or sending another billion dollars’ worth of weapons to Ukraine. It’s as though climate catastrophe doesn’t really matter- if we just talk about it from to time and do nothing- that will placate the masses…

The response to the Greek Islands’ wildfires largely caused by climate change are just one of so many hypocritical and insane responses to climate change. The primary purpose of the fire response is not to eliminate the risks to vegetation and wildlife- oh no!-its to ensure that more tourists can flown in next year – and consequently ensuring that CO2 production from the thousands of tourist jets flying in and out of Greece ensure further climate catastrophe. Or we may give the example of why Paris has spent billions to clean up the Seine River -not to ensure river wildlife can return to the river after a century, but to ensure there will be millions of humans attending the Paris Olympics- all coming in on those CO2 producing jet planes from around the world…

Source : EDO https://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1000

We need to ensure our communities can more easily adjust to the changes to our world and lifestyles that will occur whether we like it or not. Global trade will shrink as a result of more dangerous weather and destruction of sea, air and land routes. Transport insurance costs have already risen and will continue to escalate sharply as risks increase exponentially in the next few years. Local weather is becoming more and more unpredictable and dangerous. Multiple points of access to resources at a local level will become a priority.

In addition, to try and mitigate some of the impacts of global warming, species loss and destruction of soils and all the other species that we rely on for our survival, we need to urgently action the following.

In no particular order of priority (because they are all priorities), the following initiatives need to be initiated—NOW! …..

  • All food and products are produced within a 20km radius of major population centres. This limits both the transit/CO2 costs to the customer, and the transit costs of the producer.
  • Essential resources that cannot be produced or accessed locally are stockpiled in key places locally.
  • Transportation routes to other countries and locally, are multi-dimensional- ie different modes of transport which minimise biodiversity and climate harm.
  • All sales of goods account for their real costs to the environment.
  • All government and local government decisions take into account the environmental impact on emissions and biodiversity.
  • Businesses annually account and taxed for the environment costs of their business operations. All sales of goods account for their real costs to the environment.
  • All homes and businesses are retrofitted with high standard insulation. Where feasible solar panels are installed which link to the electricity grid.
  • Water from roofs is stored for either personal use or recycled into the water supply.
  • Urban areas and individual housing must have trees planted in every available area where food is not being produced.
  • All towns and cities are required to provide free or very low-cost community gardens and individual allotments for citizen food production.
  • Other species have the same rights as humans. A formal recognition by the UN and all state actors that all life is sacred and do not exist solely for humans’ benefit.
  • All products produced are capable of repair (or cannot be sold) and real recycling and repair occurs locally.
  • Governments and businesses are required to restore indigenous biodiversity to an agreed percentage each year.
  • Air travel is banned unless for absolutely essential business and family issues (e.g. tourism, global sports and cultural events are limited).
  • Solar, wind-powered or sustainably charged battery-powered sea, air and train vessels are developed and effectively utilised.
  • Farming is required to transition to sustainable practices within 10 years (no sprays, chemical fertilisers, and no ploughing- (use of permaculture, organic farming and biochar among other tools).
  • Indigenous trees are planted on a vast scale, on the understanding that they will never be cut down and ‘harvested’.

_____________________

The above initiatives may seem extreme to you- or even perhaps ridiculous and totally unnecessary. Why, you might say, can’t we, as Bill McKibben argues in his New Yorker article, simply return to 1960s levels of consumption?

The reality is that we have gone too far- way too far, beyond that. We have since had 80+ more years of consumption gone crazy, of CO2 production through the roof and an enormous amount of the biosphere destroyed. We not only need to stabilise humans’ impact on the living world we rely on for our existence, we need to start to actively repair it.

And yes, many of these proposals will have an impact on jobs; but without this forward planning job losses are going to be least of our worries- there will be little long term employment ins world of climate uncertainties and ongoing climate disasters.

Planning and actioning changes now, to cope with some of the enormous impacts climate change will have on our lives, will reduce some of the high risks of loss of income, food and essential resources that every one of us will face in our new climate world.

The alternative does not bear thinking about.

Postscript

In response to the recent US Congressional hearings on whether UFOs and aliens really exist, many of the U.S. public have stated that we really need to know whether we as human beings are really ‘alone’ in the Universe.

The unequivocal answer is of course that we are not alone, there are millions of sentient species right here on this planet that we have never bothered to try and communicate with as equitable partners. They may not look like us, behave like us, destroy the planet in the way that we do, (just like in fact our hypothetical alien friends from outer space would do), but they are, nevertheless our partners on this little world- and we are NOT alone!- let’s start to behave as though they really are our partners on this world!

______________________________________________

Links

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/to-save-the-planet-should-we-really-be-moving-slower?mc_cid=75c3f2d013&mc_eid=895987eb5b

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/05/230517122123.htm

https://jonathancook.substack.com/p/why-action-on-the-climate-crisis?

We need an Earth System Treaty to save civilisation. And we need it now

http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue96/Rees96.pdf

https://theecologist.org/2023/jul/31/future-what-future

World War Three

With the decision of the West to provide F16 fighters to the Kiev government we are heading rapidly closer to a world war.

It is not that the F16s are likely to be a ‘game-changer’ -as the Western media have called all of the previous Western wonder-weapons provided to Ukraine. It is the fact that the decision to provide these weapons is one more example of the West crossing the red-lines they promised they would not cross about the provision of more military support to Kiev.

Once it becomes evident that F16s are not going to provide the military advantage to Kiev that has been promised (Kiev cannot provide the necessary air support infrastructure to create a safe environment for the new fighters), nor can they match the newer generations of Russian fighters and its surface and air to air missiles), the next Western red-line will have to be crossed.

The West, after saying that training Kiev’s pilots on F16s would take at least 18 months, now says the training will take 4 months. This very likely indicates that the pilots flying the F16s will not be Ukrainian – they will be Western military ‘retirees’ or ‘volunteers’ and/or be operated out of Polish airbases..

Sow the seeds - US war poster

Kiev and the West is determined to ‘defeat’ the Russians in Ukraine- to ‘return’ Crimea and the Donbass to Ukraine (and then to carve up Russia in the way the neocons attempted to in the Yelstin years) . Given that President Putin gave the key rationale for the Ukraine invasion as protecting Russian speakers in the Donbass against neonazi Kievan troops, and given that Crimea has been a part of Russia since Catherine the Great annexed Crimea in 1783, a ‘return’ of Crimea and the Donbass to Ukrainian control would be an existential threat to the whole Russian Federation (not just Putin) and the Russian population would never accept that loss.

This is particularly so since Kiev has made it clear that it regards Donbass’ Russian speaking citizens as second class citizens who either have to be forced to speak Ukrainian or be exiled to Russia. Similarly Ukraine has made it clear that anyone in Crimea who has supported Russia (95% of the population at last count) will be deported to Russia once they ‘reassert’ control of the Crimean peninsula.

Western ‘intelligence’ and their military leaders are presumably aware of the existential nature of this war to Russia; although a knowledge of history and facts is not a prerequisite for decision-making in the US).

While NATO and the West insist they are not at war with Russia, the facts speak otherwise. Kiev’s military would have collapsed more than 6 months ago without NATO weapons; without NATO’s satellite and drone surveillance of Russian troops, without its ‘advisors’ on the ground in Ukraine, without the training of Kiev’s troops to use NATO weapons, and without the ‘retired’ NATO military ‘volunteers’ on the front line. NATO thus continues to pretend that its only providing ‘assistance’ to Kiev- the reality is very different – this is a NATO war.

It is now a very small step for NATO soldiers with NATO uniforms to be on the ground in Ukraine and supporting Kiev from NATO airbases and missile sites in Europe. Once that final line is crossed-possibly in the next few months, China will have no choice but to enter the war on Russia’s side. China has certainly provided economic support but likely no overt military support to Russia since the war began, and is fully aware that once Russia is disposed of and carved up, (as NATO strategists have made clear is the goal) they will be next.

The extension of the military ring around mainland China and the recent development of a second AUKUS/NATO military containment ring in the Pacific with New Guinea and other Pacific nations, plus the West’s universal abrogation of the ‘One China’ principle regarding Taiwan that the West had previously signed up to, are clear signals to Beijing that war with China is coming, and coming soon. Russia must survive for China to survive.

China continues to play a constructive and peace-making role in Ukraine as Patrick Lancaster notes, although to date, without success, unlike its outstanding recent success in brokering peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran to the great consternation of the U.S., U.K. and Israel, who had hoped that an Iran/Saudi confrontation would be the catalyst for regime change in Iran and access to its oil once again as in the ‘good old days’ of the brutal American controlled Shah.

The United States is desperate to ensure that it maintains total control of the economic strands of the global economy; it rightly sees the expansion of non-US dollar transactions as a major threat to it’s control, and its consequent capacity to threaten and cajole and extract the wealth of other nations who do not obey their wishes. And there are many in the West who are quite deranged enough for the world to endure World War 3 so that the West’s avaricousness can be maintained.

If the dollar collapses, the United States already in huge debt, will collapse rapidly. Its capacity to maintain its 600 plus military bases around the world will cease – and like the decline of the Roman Empire on fast forward, its military men will return home to vent their frustrations on the Empire.

Thus neither side in this war can afford to lose. Those of us on the periphery of this battle of the giants, need to maintain our safety as best we can!

______________________________________

Links

The War in Ukraine Was Provoked

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/28/the-moment-has-arrived-biden-must-give-ukraine-all-it-needs-to-win

A not so Brave New World

COP27, the meeting of the rich and powerful with a smattering of people who actually know something about global warming and its impacts, was a total disaster for the planet. No agreed reductions in fossil fuels but an agreement to ‘compensate’ poorer countries for the impact that rich countries ongoing CO2 production will have on their local environment.

The fact that there were at least 36 private jets which flew participants into the COP27 conference, spewing huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere is one small demonstration of what these conferences are about- looking good and taking no action while our living planet dies.

While there were many indigenous peoples attending the COP27 who were able to voice their concerns about the current state of the earth and make suggestions for change, their voice had absolutely no weight in the final decisions made by the big power-brokers ( who depend on a CO2 producing economy to keep the electoral money rolling in).

Those indigenous groups talked not only about climate change, but more importantly, about the loss of biodiversity and our dis-connection with the rest of nature which industrialization and commodification has done to our beautiful living world in the last 200 years. Without our fellow living things on this planet ; we are done .

The idea that giving some money to a poor country to compensate for a now unsolvable problem of environmental destruction is frankly bizarre, and amply demonstrates that mental vacuity of those rich and powerful people.

No doubt the money will be useful and may help poorer countries mitigate the losses to their local ecosystems and help humans survive in their devastated environment a little longer, but in many cases that money will simply be spent on more ‘development’ and ‘progress’ and thus more environmental destruction.

And as we can already begin to see, many of the global ‘rich’ countries are already struggling to cope with the environmental ‘costs’ to their own economies, so their capacity to pay anybody else for their own stupidity is soon going to be substantially diminished.

Everywhere we see the powerful and the media portraying climate change as some little problem we can solve- at some stage- but lets get on with the business of despoiling the planet now -while there’s money to be made!

I see sublime examples of this on my local state television news channel, who in one news segment show how our magnificent government has made some new pledge to reduce carbon emissions and the next news segment extols the virtues of that same government encouraging tourists from half way round the world to travel to New Zealand.(and home again). Those enormous jet plane carbon emissions (about 5 tonnes of Co2 each way) will of course not be counted in New Zealand’s carbon emissions but to the tourist’s home country, so naturally everything is ok!

We will undoubtedly exceed 1.5C increases in global temperatures in the not so distant future , and will also certainly reach 3.5C increases if we do not dramatically reduce our consumption of energy globally. Green energy solutions; solar, wind and wave can make that transition a little easier, but they cannot ever replace the quantity of energy from oil gas and coal we continue to consume at ever increasing rates.

We all need to come to terms with consuming less and helping to recreate the natural world .

If we don’t, and very soon, Nature will decide for us in not so pleasant ways.

_____________________________________________

Links

https://doomberg.substack.com/p/exit-stage-left?

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/11/21/another-terrible-failure-cop27-ends-no-action-cut-climate-wrecking-fossil-fuels?utm_source=daily_newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=daily_newsletter
Chilean Indigenous Activist Says COP27 Promoted Devastating Mega-Projects
Badly injured developing nations promised palliative care at COP27
COP27: Australia promotes fossil fuels as pathway to carbon neutrality

There is(apparently) only one ‘Truth’

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has it seems irrevocably pinned her flag to the mast of the ‘dark side’- the U.S. ‘rule based order’ ( not to be confused with the UN charter of human rights or anything silly like that, but with the right of the YS to do anything it damn well likes to any country and people it pleases. (bombing an allies’ gas pipeline is just one of so many examples)

Once a president of ‘International Union of Socialist Youth’, which among its neoliberal causes, supposedly also stands for ‘Social justice and democracy – to ensure participation for all citizens based on the principles of freedom and equality, against authoritarianism, populism and dictatorship; for the right to self-determination, to liberty, and freedom of expression of all peoples‘- Jacinda is now calling for the world to install what Zerohedge calls a ‘world censorship system’

Whil insisting there is only one truth in regard to world conflicts (no room for peace negotiations there!) she also insisted there could only be one view about climate change. As one who does not deny the reality of climate change, I find it astonishing that Ardern suggests we can legislate climate impacts away by saying we will not allow the world to increase global temperatures by 1.5C.

Either she is amazing badly informed by her science advisors about climate change, or she is simply posturing. The reality is that it is now inevitable that the world will experience much more than 1.5C warming. Governments across the world (including her own) have talked a lot about climate change impacts and what should be done- but have in fact done nothing more than pretend to their voters they are doing something. Co2 global production continues to increase, not decrease.

And in fact Ardern’s government has continued to push for more international tourism (which in New Zealand results in massive production of Co2 from the passenger jets winging their way around the world to the South Pacific from the Northern hemisphere), more extensive dairy and agribusiness farming which continues to destroy our environment in multiple ways and generally more ‘progress’ (which means more businesses which inevitably destroy more of the environment and induces more consumption of goods people don’t need.

Ardern and her Labour are like her National Party opposition and all the other New Zealand political parties, locked into requiring financial support from businesses- and ‘more business’ and ‘progress’ are simply euphemisms for making money from environmental destruction.

But, to return to the earlier argument about there being simple single truths about the Ukraine war; that a democratic Ukraine with ‘European’ values of tolerance and freedom is fighting against a relentless ruthless behemoth of Putin’s Russian Empire, we might put forward a counter ‘truth’. That Ukraine is in fact a brutal single party white supremacist state whose only reason for Western support is to defang the Russian bear so that Western corporations can once again (as in the Yeltsin years) begin to appropriate Russian assets at bargain prices.

As the Scrum notes: Incited by Western powers, Poland, Lithuania, and the Habsburg Empire, the key to Ukrainian nationalism was that it was Western, and thus superior. Since Ukrainians and Russians stem from the same population, pro-Western Ukrainian ultra-nationalism was built on imaginary myths of racial differences: Ukrainians were the true Western whatever-it-was, whereas Russians were mixed with “Mongols” and thus an inferior race. Banderist Ukrainian nationalists have openly called for elimination of Russians as such, as inferior beings.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1577289845155983361

The destruction of the Russian state was the prime agenda for UK and US ‘intelligence’ operatives after the second world war, making enthusiastic use of Ukrainian neonazi groups like Stepan Bandera’s OUNB and then latterly with OUNB’s successors like the Right Sector and their militants the Azov and Aidar battalions, and the consequent overthrow of the corrupt (as every Ukrainian president has proved to be) but democratically elected President Yanukovych in the US backed Maidan revolution of 2014.

Western intelligence has since played a major role in re-arming the Ukrainian army and the neonazi militant groups to not only get rid of the problem of Russian speaking Ukrainians in the Dombas, but also to fight a war with Russia itself.

These Ukrainian ultra-nationalists have also been enthusiastically supported by strong Nazi elements in the Baltic States, Germany, Poland and the Ukrainian post WW2 diaspora, particularly in Canada.

So, naturally, any compromise in the grand Western agenda, not to mention a reduction in the Western PR media effort to discredit Russia (and now China) in any way possible how ever implausible, is completely impossible- peace negotiations are not an option. Nuclear war with Russia is also being promoted in Western media as also an option, deliberately misrepresenting (as Scott Ritter-former UN weapons inspector notes)the Russian position on first use of nuclear weapons.

The ‘perhaps’ unintended consequence of this glorification of the ultra-nationalist agenda, along with the self-destruction of European economies causing poverty and anger and demonstrations on the street, is the resurrection of the white supremacist ultranationalist movements, like Zelensky’s, across Europe.

First in 2022 we saw the ‘Sweden Democrats’ far-right movement gain political power in Stockholm and then the ascendance to power in Italy of the ‘Brothers of Italy’-a direct descendant of Mussolini’s fascist party.

These far-right groups not only celebrate intolerance of minorities, but also any dissent of the view that the state is pre-eminent in all things, that the corporations should rule in tandem with government (as in the US), and that consequently any collective view of humanity outside of the state apparatus is a threat to be stamped out.

However the far-right’s biggest threat to humanity is their denial of the climate change disaster. How can the state become strong in their view, without industrial ‘progress’ and a strong war-machine?

We can already see that view reflected in those European ‘moderate’ parties who currently control the EU. They’ll talk about mitigating climate change and green energy and all those cute things, as long as it doesn’t impact on the economy and the money that rolls into party coffers from the corporations-‘fire up the coal boilers for electricity again ‘cos we need to destroy Russia first!’

We are, after all, talking about Jacinda Ardern’s favourite ‘international rule-based order’ here!

Let’s get our priorities straight with the one true Truth!

_______________________________________________

Links

https://thescrum.substack.com/p/a-cia-theme-park?

Who profits from Pipeline Terror?
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/09/30/scott-ritter-the-onus-is-on-biden-putin/

https://thescrum.substack.com/p/revanchism-in-germany

The Nightmare of Military Spending on an Overheating Planet
https://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2022/09/25/nyt-on-ukraine-vietnam-dj-vu/
Kharkov and Mobilization

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-10-05/uks-secret-diplomacy-and-european-wars

A Descent into Fantasyland

All wars are, without doubt, pointless, tragic and foolish affairs that also play a significant part in destroying the remainder of our natural environment and a future for our children.

Western media are continuously playing a looped recording that Ukraine and its president Zelensky are defending the ‘free world’ – democratic ‘white” nations- against the evil Russian hordes. What is most interesting is that the language used in this messaging is consistent right across the Western media, regardless of the country you live in .

The downright lies and half truths about Ukraine that I read and hear about from New Zealand media are the identical lies and half-truths that are being published in the U.K. the U.S. or anywhere in Western Europe.

We are for instance told :

  • That the Russian and its allied armies are, any day now, going to run out of ammunition, equipment or manpower.
  • That the Ukrainian army will (very soon) start pushing the Russians back to the Russian border, and perhaps beyond..
  • That the Kiev government is a free and democratic state, fighting a desperate war against unprovoked aggression.
  • The Russians are bombing themselves in a nuclear power plant that they took from Ukraine in March 2022.

And we are for instance not told :

In the last few days we have also heard about the killing of the daughter of the ‘ultra-nationalist” Alexander Dugin. Dugin is, in my opinion, an obnoxious idealogue who has for many years promoted a Russia first meme. However nobody deserves to die because of their beliefs, (let alone their children) – be they Russian, Ukrainian or any other nationality.

What is however scary, is the identical use of language by Western media in describing Dugin as an ‘ultra-nationalist” – what exactly an ‘ultra-nationalist’ is, as opposed to simply being a ‘nationalist’, is somewhat unclear- but one is left with the clear understanding that only Russians can be ‘ultranationalists’ (or for that matter ‘oligarchs’) and never of course those Americans who have the ludicrous belief in the United States as the ‘exceptional nation’ who wanders the world doing good deeds for the benefit of those of us who are less enlightened.

Patriotism is one of the scourges of humanity; an absurd belief in the superiority of the culture and land to which you were accidentally born into. A scourge that blights and distorts the mind into believing that any action ; however intrinsically evil it is, is good as long as it benefits the country you were born in.

We see that evil in the blue and gold banners that enswathes everything in Ukraine, the United State’s ‘Stars and Stripes’, and the blue white and red flag of Russia, to name but three.

So now, as Westerners, we are told to hate all Russians, all Chinese, because they are a threat to our expensive lifestyles….And as true patriots, we should consume more, build more and destroy more , because we are the epitome of ‘civilisation’.

And all the while, we move ever faster into a new world where the climate is already more unpredictable and dangerous, where global warming and sea-levels continue to rise and rise for the next hundred, maybe thousand years, and where we ever more rapidly, destroy what is left of our living world.

Western media may pay occasional lip-service to the climate ’emergency’ (as though it will conveniently go away in the next few years if we just try harder), but refuse to say out loud the only solution we have to this global catastrophe- to drastically reduce consumption.

And why?- because their media profit margins and their sponsors depend on more economic ‘growth’.

So it becomes clear that the only path to ‘de-growth’, and retaining some semblance of a live-able world for humans and other species, is one where Gaia herself creates that economic destruction.

When hurricanes, huge storms, enormous amounts of rainfall, oppressive high temperatures and sea level rise ( among many other ‘natural’ impacts), result in it being impossible to buy insurance for industry to sell your products or to have a market where people can no longer afford to buy your useless junk; only then will we start to see a return to a sustainable (but hotter) world where all species can live in harmony, and even some contentment!

Media have indoctrinated us all to believe that we need to consume more, do more, travel more – that we cannot live lives of contentment without all those things we need to buy and consume..

Its a lie.

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Links

https://en.interaffairs.ru/article/did-cia-train-ukrainian-torturers/

https://thescrum.substack.com/p/head-spinning-disorientation?

Ukraine’s Massive Money Laundering Scam
https://www.thepostil.com/the-hidden-truth-about-the-war-in-ukraine/
American Hegemony and the Politics of Provocation
https://scheerpost.com/2022/07/26/chris-hedges-the-dawn-of-the-apocalypse/
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/07/30/zelensky-militants-convicted-child-rape-torture-military/

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-08-23/meaning-darya-dugina-assassination

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/ukraine-draft-law-5371-workers-rights-war-russia/

https://rumble.com/v1dqx82-bidens-shame-the-8-minute-expose-of-ukraines-biggest-lies.html