A Climate Resilience Fund for New Zealand

Proposed Model: CIR-ACC (Climate Impact and Resilience – Accident Compensation Corporation framework)

Funding Structure: 40% Crown / 60% Levy-Funded | Actuarial Risk Model

May 2026

Paul  Martin –paulm100m@gmail.com

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

Fund Architecture and Design Principles 4

Funding Model 5

Phase 1: Foundation and Legislative Development (2026-2027)

Phase 2: Parliamentary Process and Establishment (2027-2028)

Phase 3: Operational Launch and Pilot Programmes (2028-2029)

Phase 4: Full Operation and Integration (2029-2031)

Phase 5: Long-Term Maturity and Expansion (2031-2035+)

Governance Structure and Accountability

Local Government Access Framework

Risk Factors and Mitigation

Conclusion

Executive Summary

This document presents a comprehensive implementation timeline for establishing a National Climate Impact and Resilience Fund (CIR-ACC), modelled on New Zealand’s Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC) framework. The proposal originates from a District Council Annual Plan 2026/2027 submission, which identified the urgent need for a permanent, pre-funded mechanism to address climate-related infrastructure damage, managed retreat, and community resilience.

The current ad-hoc, post-disaster funding model leaves councils and ratepayers as insurers of last resort for climate volatility. The 2025 Tasman floods exposed the structural weaknesses in this approach, with fiscal shortfalls persisting despite central government co-funding. One-off funds are structurally incapable of keeping pace with the inevitable intensification and increased frequency of extreme weather events.

The ACC-type fund proposed here would operate as a mandatory, ring-fenced national mechanism, funded through a combination of levies on property insurance premiums, levies on commercial land value, and a fixed-ratio Crown contribution (40% Crown, 60% levy-funded). The fund would use an actuarial model where climate risk is annualised rather than capped per disaster, providing local government with predictable access to resources for both pre-emptive mitigation and post-event relief.

Key Features of the Proposed CIR-ACC
✓  Permanent, pre-funded mechanism replacing ad-hoc disaster bailouts✓  Actuarial risk model — climate risk annualised, not capped per event✓  Three funding streams: property insurance levy, commercial land value levy, Crown contribution✓  Dual purpose: pre-emptive mitigation AND post-event relief✓  Predictable access criteria for all local authorities✓  Independent governance with Crown, local government, and iwi/Maori representation 

Fund Architecture and Design Principles

Core Design Features

The CIR-ACC is designed around five core principles derived from the ACC model, adapted for climate risk management:

  1. Comprehensive Coverage: The fund covers all climate-related physical risks to public infrastructure, community assets, and household property, including gradual changes (sea-level rise, coastal erosion) and acute events (flooding, storms, wildfire).
  2. Community Responsibility: All property owners and commercial ratepayers contribute through established levy mechanisms, creating a broad risk pool that reduces individual burden and ensures equitable distribution of costs.
  3. Complete Rehabilitation: The fund covers not only emergency repair but also long-term resilience building, managed retreat, and ecological restoration — recognising that adaptation is a permanent condition, not a series of isolated responses.
  4. Administrative Efficiency: Predetermined eligibility criteria, standardised assessment protocols, and delegated decision-making authority enable rapid disbursement without sacrificing accountability.
  5. Actuarial Soundness: Premiums are set using climate risk modelling that annualises expected losses over long time horizons, ensuring the fund remains solvent as event frequency increases.

Funding Model

The proposed funding structure establishes three concurrent revenue streams:

Revenue StreamMechanismEstimated Annual Revenue
Property Insurance Levy2.5% levy on all domestic and commercial property insurance premiums; collected by insurers via RBNZ regulatory framework$350-450M
Commercial Land Value Levy0.3% levy on commercial and industrial rateable land values; collected via council rating systems$250-350M
Crown Contribution40% of actuarially assessed annual requirement; appropriated in Budget$200-400M
Total Annual Fund $800M-$1.2B

This model generates an estimated base fund of $800 million to $1.2 billion annually, escalating with property value growth and insurance premium increases. The actuarial approach means funds are available immediately when events occur, eliminating the current delays associated with emergency appropriations and post-event negotiations between central and local government.

Phase 1: Foundation and Legislative Development (2026-2027)

Q3 2026 – Q4 2027  |  Local government advocacy, policy development, and legislative drafting

Council Resolutions and Lobbying (Q3-Q4 2026)

The implementation begins at the local government level. Local, District and Regional Councils formally adopt resolutions calling for central government action. These resolutions specify the ACC-type model as the preferred mechanism and commit council resources to supporting the policy development process.

Council X Annual Plan 2026/2027 formally resolves to lobby for CIR-ACC legislation through Local Government New Zealand (LGNZ) and directly to the Minister for Emergency Management and the Minister for Climate Change

•  Regional councils, unitary authorities, and metropolitan councils in high-risk areas (Northland, Hawke’s Bay, West Coast, Canterbury) adopt parallel resolutions

•  LGNZ Climate Change and Emergency Management committees develop a consolidated national position paper endorsing the ACC-type mechanism

•  Formal engagement with the Climate Change Commission to incorporate the fund proposal into the National Adaptation Framework

Policy Development and Stakeholder Engagement (Q1-Q3 2027)

Central government agencies, led by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) and the Ministry for the Environment, establish an interdepartmental working group to develop detailed policy settings. This process involves extensive consultation with local government, iwi/Maori, the insurance sector, and climate adaptation experts.

•  NEMA convenes the CIR-ACC Policy Working Group with representatives from Treasury, MfE, MBIE, DIA, and Te Puni Kokiri

•  Reference group established including LGNZ, Insurance Council of New Zealand, Infrastructure Commission, and Climate Change Commission

•  Iwi/Maori advisory panel convened to ensure Treaty-compliant governance structures and equitable access mechanisms

•  Public consultation on high-level design principles, including levy rates, eligibility criteria, and governance arrangements

Legislative Drafting (Q2-Q4 2027)

The Parliamentary Counsel’s Office drafts the Climate Impact and Resilience Act, drawing on the ACC Act 2001, the Earthquake Commission Act 1993, and international precedents including the UK’s Flood Re and Australia’s proposed Cyclone Reinsurance Pool.

•  Draft legislation prepared establishing the CIR-ACC as an independent Crown entity with statutory objectives and operational independence

•  Levy collection mechanisms integrated with existing rating systems (via councils) and insurance regulatory frameworks (via RBNZ/FMA)

•  Eligibility criteria and access protocols codified, drawing on the National Policy Statement for Natural Hazards 2025

•  Governance framework established with independent board, Crown appointees, local government nominees, and iwi/Maori representation

PeriodKey Milestone
Jul 2026TDC Annual Plan adoption; formal resolution to lobby for CIR-ACC
Aug 2026LGNZ position paper development begins; regional council resolutions
Oct 2026Formal approaches to Ministers for Climate Change and Emergency Management
Feb 2027NEMA-led Policy Working Group convened; terms of reference agreed
Mar 2027Iwi/Maori advisory panel and sector reference groups established
May 2027Public consultation on design principles (8-week period)
Jul 2027Policy recommendations to Cabinet; legislative drafting instructions issued
Sep 2027Draft Climate Impact and Resilience Act completed
Nov 2027Cabinet approval to introduce legislation; Regulatory Impact Statement published

Phase 2: Parliamentary Process and Establishment (2027-2028)

Q4 2027 – Q4 2028  |  Legislative passage, entity establishment, and systems development

Parliamentary Process (Q4 2027 – Q3 2028)

The Climate Impact and Resilience Bill progresses through the full parliamentary process, including select committee scrutiny and public submissions. Given the cross-party consensus on climate adaptation evidenced in the National Adaptation Framework, the bill is treated as priority legislation.

•  Bill introduced to Parliament with first reading debate (December 2027)

•  Select committee inquiry with nationwide hearings (February-April 2028)

•  Submissions received from all 78 local authorities, iwi entities, insurance sector, infrastructure providers, and community organisations

•  Supplementary order papers addressing select committee recommendations (June 2028)

•  Second and third readings; Royal Assent by September 2028

Entity Establishment (Q2-Q4 2028)

Concurrently with the legislative process, the new entity is incorporated and key appointments made to enable rapid operationalisation following Royal Assent.

•  CIR-ACC incorporated as independent Crown entity (March 2028)

•  Independent board appointed: 7 members including chair, with expertise in climate science, actuarial assessment, local government, infrastructure, Maori governance, and risk management

•  Chief Executive recruited and appointed (May 2028)

•  Initial office establishment in Wellington with regional liaison teams

•  Memoranda of understanding executed with LGNZ, Insurance Council, EQC, and key government agencies

Systems and Capability Development (Q3-Q4 2028)

•  Actuarial model development: partnership with ACC’s actuarial team and international reinsurance specialists

•  Climate risk database integration: linking to NIWA, MfE hazard mapping, and council asset management systems

•  IT systems procurement and development for levy collection, claims processing, and disbursement

•  Staff recruitment: initial establishment of 45-60 FTE across actuarial, claims, governance, and regional liaison functions

•  Eligibility criteria and assessment frameworks finalised for the three funding streams

PeriodKey Milestone
Dec 2027Climate Impact and Resilience Bill introduced; first reading
Mar 2028CIR-ACC entity incorporated; board appointment process begins
Apr 2028Select committee report back; board appointments confirmed
May 2028Chief Executive appointed; regional liaison structure established
Jun 2028Actuarial partnership and climate risk database integration begins
Jul 2028IT systems procurement; staff recruitment commences
Sep 2028Royal Assent; Climate Impact and Resilience Act 2028 commences
Oct 2028Regulations gazetted; levy rates set for 2029 financial year
Nov 2028Full operational readiness review; systems testing complete

Phase 3: Operational Launch and Pilot Programmes (2028-2029)

Q4 2028 – Q4 2029  |  Levy collection commences, pilot programmes activated, first disbursements

Levy Collection and Revenue Establishment (Q4 2028 – Q1 2029)

The first levy collection cycle begins on 1 January 2029, with initial revenue flows establishing the fund’s capital base. The levy mechanism is integrated with existing systems to minimise administrative burden.

•  Property insurance premium levy (2.5%) collected via insurance companies on all domestic and commercial policies from 1 January 2029

•  Commercial land value levy (0.3%) collected via council rating systems from 1 July 2029 (aligned with rating year)

•  Crown contribution of 40% of forecast annual requirement appropriated in Budget 2029

•  Initial capital base estimated at $400-500 million by 30 June 2029

Pilot Mitigation Programme (Q1-Q4 2029)

A $150 million pilot programme for pre-emptive mitigation is launched, targeting high-priority projects that demonstrate the fund’s value in reducing long-term liability.

•  Round 1: Elevated bridges and critical infrastructure in flood-prone catchments ($60M)

•  Round 2: Managed retreat buy-outs for properties in unsustainable coastal and flood-risk locations ($50M)

•  Round 3: Wetland restoration and nature-based solutions for stormwater management ($40M)

Pilot Resilience Hub Programme (Q2-Q4 2029)

The community resilience hub stream supports development of solar+battery backup systems for emergency shelters and community facilities, building on the EPOD concept (Emergency Power Operating Devices).

•  Grants programme for community resilience hub establishment ($30M pilot)

•  Priority allocation to communities demonstrating high climate exposure and social vulnerability

•  Integration with Civil Defence Emergency Management Group planning

•  Technical standards and monitoring frameworks developed

PeriodKey Milestone
Jan 2029Insurance levy collection commences; first revenue flows
Feb 2029Pilot mitigation programme Round 1 opens (elevated infrastructure)
Mar 2029First claims protocol activated for qualifying events
Apr 2029Resilience hub pilot programme opens; regional liaison teams operational
May 2029Pilot mitigation Round 2 (managed retreat buy-outs)
Jul 2029Commercial land value levy collection commences via councils
Aug 2029Pilot mitigation Round 3 (wetland restoration); first resilience hub grants approved
Oct 2029Six-month operational review; levy compliance assessment
Dec 2029Annual report to Parliament; year-one actuarial valuation complete

Phase 4: Full Operation and Integration (2029-2031)

Q1 2030 – Q4 2031  |  Mature operations, full council access, actuarial refinement

Full Programme Rollout (2029/30 Financial Year)

With pilot learnings incorporated, the fund moves to full operational status. All three funding streams are available to all qualifying local authorities on a continuous basis.

•  Mitigation programme: $300M annually for elevated infrastructure, managed retreat, nature-based solutions, and flood protection

•  Relief programme: Event-triggered access for infrastructure repair, silt removal, temporary housing, and economic recovery (budget: $200-400M annually depending on event frequency)

•  Resilience hub programme: $60M annually for community facility upgrades with solar+battery backup, water resilience, and emergency communications

•  All 78 local authorities signed up with access protocols and pre-agreed assessment criteria

Actuarial Refinement and Levy Adjustment (2030-2031)

The first two full years of operational data enable actuarial refinement of levy rates, risk profiles, and funding allocations. The board conducts its first triennial levy review.

•  Triennial actuarial review completed (June 2031); levy rates adjusted based on emerging claims experience

•  Climate risk models updated with 2029-2031 event data and attribution science

•  Regional risk weightings refined to ensure equitable access across diverse hazard profiles

•  Investment strategy for fund reserves developed in partnership with NZ Super Fund / ACC Investment Management

Systems Integration (2030-2031)

•  Full integration with council asset management systems for automated exposure assessment

•  Real-time event monitoring linked to NIWA, GeoNet, and MetService data feeds

•  Pre-approved project pipelines enable rapid disbursement (72-hour approval for pre-qualified projects)

•  Annual resilience reporting integrated with council long-term plan and annual plan cycles

PeriodKey Milestone
Jan 2030Full mitigation programme opens ($300M); all councils eligible
Mar 2030First annual actuarial assessment; reserve adequacy review
Jul 2030First full year of dual levy collection; Crown contribution review
Sep 2030Integrated council asset management systems pilot (10 councils)
Dec 2030Two-year operational review; Parliamentary select committee briefing
Mar 2031Real-time event monitoring system operational
Jun 2031Triennial levy review completed; rates adjusted for FY2031/32
Sep 2031Full council systems integration; pre-approved project pipeline active
Dec 2031Three-year actuarial valuation; investment strategy for reserves adopted

Phase 5: Long-Term Maturity and Expansion (2031-2035+)

2032 onwards  |  Continuous improvement, expanded scope, international learning

Fund Maturity (2032-2035)

By 2032, the CIR-ACC is a mature, well-capitalised institution with established governance, proven operational systems, and strong actuarial foundations. The focus shifts to continuous improvement, scope refinement, and preparation for escalating climate impacts projected through mid-century.

•  Projected fund balance of $2.5-3.5 billion by 2035, with annual levy revenue exceeding $1.2 billion

•  Full actuarial cost-benefit data available demonstrating return on mitigation investment (target: 5:1 benefit-cost ratio for pre-emptive works)

•  Managed retreat programme scaled to support 2,000-3,000 property acquisitions annually in high-risk zones

•  Community resilience hub network reaches 300+ facilities nationwide

Scope Expansion and Adaptation (2033-2035+)

As climate science evolves and operational experience accumulates, the fund’s scope may expand to address emerging risks and opportunities identified through the six-yearly National Climate Change Risk Assessment cycle.

•  Potential expansion to cover climate-related business interruption for SMEs in qualifying events

•  Integration with biodiversity and ecological restoration objectives (blue carbon, catchment restoration)

•  International reinsurance partnership to manage tail-risk events exceeding fund capacity

•  Development of parametric insurance products for rapid disbursement in predictable event types

Legislative Review (2034)

The Climate Impact and Resilience Act 2028 includes a mandatory five-year legislative review. This review assesses the fund’s performance against statutory objectives, governance effectiveness, levy adequacy, and scope appropriateness.

•  Independent review panel appointed by the Minister (Q1 2034)

•  Public submissions on fund performance and future priorities (Q2 2034)

•  Recommendations to Parliament for legislative amendments if required (Q4 2034)

•  Second six-yearly National Climate Change Risk Assessment (2032) informs review scope

PeriodKey Milestone
2032Fund matures; $2.5B+ balance; 5:1 mitigation benefit-cost demonstrated
2033Scope expansion options assessed; business interruption pilot considered
2034Mandatory five-year legislative review; independent panel appointed
2035Amended legislation (if required); international reinsurance partnerships
2036+Continuous adaptation to escalating risks; parametric products; blue carbon integration

Governance Structure and Accountability

The CIR-ACC operates as an independent Crown entity with a governance structure designed to balance operational independence with public accountability:

ElementDescription
Legal FormIndependent Crown entity under the Crown Entities Act 2004, with specific provisions in the Climate Impact and Resilience Act 2028
Board7 independent members with expertise in climate science, actuarial assessment, local government, infrastructure, Maori governance, and risk management
Crown OversightResponsible Ministers (Climate Change and Finance); monitoring under Crown Entities Act framework
Iwi/Maori ParticipationStatutory board position; dedicated advisory committee; Treaty compliance audit function
Local Government VoiceBoard position nominated by LGNZ; formal consultation on eligibility criteria and levy settings
AuditFinancial audit by Auditor-General; actuarial review by independent actuary; performance against statutory objectives

The board comprises seven members appointed by the Governor-General on the recommendation of Ministers. Appointment criteria ensure expertise in climate science, actuarial assessment, local government, infrastructure delivery, Maori governance, community resilience, and financial management. Board members serve staggered four-year terms with one reappointment permitted.

An independent actuary reviews the fund’s solvency annually, with a full actuarial valuation every three years. The Auditor-General audits the fund’s financial statements and performance against statutory objectives. The fund reports annually to Parliament through the appropriate select committee.

Local Government Access Framework

All 78 local authorities (regional councils, unitary authorities, territorial authorities, and district health boards where relevant) have access to the CIR-ACC through three distinct pathways:

Stream 1: Pre-emptive Mitigation

Councils submit project proposals against predetermined eligibility criteria. Projects must demonstrate a positive benefit-cost ratio, alignment with district/regional climate adaptation plans, and deliver measurable risk reduction. Assessment criteria prioritise projects protecting critical infrastructure, reducing community vulnerability, and delivering co-benefits for biodiversity and water quality.

Stream 2: Post-Event Relief

Following a qualifying climate event (defined by intensity thresholds linked to NIWA and MetService data), affected councils activate the relief protocol. Pre-negotiated assessment contracts enable rapid damage evaluation, with 72-hour approval for pre-qualified response categories. The fund covers infrastructure repair, silt and debris removal, temporary accommodation, and economic recovery support for affected communities.

Stream 3: Community Resilience Hubs

The resilience hub stream provides capital grants for community facilities that can function as emergency shelters during infrastructure disruption. Eligible projects include solar+battery installations, water independence systems, emergency communications upgrades, and accessibility improvements. Priority allocation uses a vulnerability index combining climate exposure, social deprivation, and infrastructure dependency metrics.

StreamAnnual AllocationEligible Activities
Pre-emptive Mitigation$300M (base)Elevated infrastructure, managed retreat, wetland restoration, flood protection, nature-based solutions
Post-Event Relief$200-400M (variable)Infrastructure repair, silt removal, temporary housing, economic recovery support
Community Resilience Hubs$60M (base)Solar+battery systems, water independence, emergency comms, accessibility upgrades

Risk Factors and Mitigation

The successful establishment and operation of the CIR-ACC depends on managing several key risks:

Risk FactorMitigation Strategy
Political discontinuityBipartisan support locked in through select committee process; statutory independence protects against ministerial interference
Levy resistancePhased introduction starting at 50% of target rates; public education campaign; clear demonstration of benefit-cost advantage
Event frequency exceeding actuarial projectionsPrudential capital buffer (target 120% of expected liabilities); reinsurance for tail risks; triennial levy review mechanism
Council capacity constraintsRegional liaison team support; simplified application processes for pre-qualified projects; technical assistance grants
Moral hazardCo-funding requirements (minimum 20% council contribution for mitigation); benefit-cost thresholds; post-event accountability measures
Treaty compliance failuresStatutory Maori board position; independent Treaty compliance audit; iwi/Maori advisory committee with formal consultation rights

Conclusion

The Climate Impact and Resilience Fund represents a structural transformation in how Aotearoa New Zealand finances climate adaptation. By replacing the current ad-hoc, post-disaster model with a permanent, pre-funded, actuarially sound mechanism, the CIR-ACC provides local government with the certainty and resources needed to plan for a future of intensifying climate risk.

The implementation timeline presented here — spanning from council resolutions in 2026 to full operational maturity by 2032 — is ambitious but achievable. It requires sustained political commitment, effective collaboration between central and local government, meaningful partnership with iwi/Maori, and public acceptance of the levy mechanisms that underpin the fund’s financial sustainability.

The cost of delay is substantial. Each year without a permanent fund locks in additional vulnerability, defers critical mitigation investments, and ensures that when the next major event strikes, communities and ratepayers will once again bear the full burden of recovery. The experience of New Zealand’s Tasman District in 2026 confirms that climate change is not a series of isolated emergencies — it is a permanent, intensifying condition. The CIR-ACC is the institutional response that permanence demands.

Climate Resilience Starts with Certainty, Not Crisis

New Zealand’s Rapidly Deteriorating Marine Environment

A Submission to the New Zealand Parliament’s Select Committee on a proposed Amendment to the NZ Fisheries Bill.

Concerns Regarding the Fisheries Amendment Bill,  and Recommendations for Sustainable Fisheries Management.

Introduction

The New Zealand Government, through Fisheries Minister Shane Jones, frames the Fisheries Amendment Bill  as an ‘efficiency and productivity’ exercise—cutting red tape, giving industry “certainty,” and boosting seafood export value.

In reality, the Bill represents a systematic dismantling of safeguards at precisely the moment they are most needed.

Key concerns include:

  1. The completely inadequate timescale for consultation on  an issue that  is vital to New Zealanders and our marine world.
  2. Concentration of power:  The Minister gains greater authority to set catch limits independent of scientific advice, with the ability to rely on industry self-reported data rather than robust independent assessment.
  3. Erosion of oversight:   On-board camera footage—recently proven effective at exposing massive under-reporting of discards—would be exempt from the Official Information Act, with fines up to \$50,000 for sharing footage. The Minister can also allow operators to switch cameras off.
  4. Reduced accountability:   Legal challenges to fisheries decisions would be restricted to a 20-working day window, severely limiting judicial review that has historically held Ministers accountable to the Act’s sustainability purpose.
  5. Weakened environmental protections:   The Bill introduces more flexible, longer-term (up to 5-year) catch limits with minimal review, reduces penalties for exceeding catch limits and taking undersized fish, and effectively incentivizes destructive bottom trawling over cleaner methods.
  6. Privatization of a public resource:   Quota owners would gain ability to stockpile entitlements and delay catch reductions even when stocks are depleted, shifting the burden of ecological degradation onto the public while profits are exported—seafood exports average under \$6/kg, little of which benefits domestic consumers.

This proposed amendment occurs against a backdrop of well documented dramatic ecological marine decline. The Ministry for the Environment’s  ‘Our Marine Environment 2025’  report and other official data, note the following negative impacts:

Overfishing:   12% of assessed fish stocks (19 of 152) are over-fished or depleted, with 5 stocks collapsed. Bycatch continues to kill protected species—15 Hector’s dolphins in 2023/24 alone, thousands of seabirds annually, and tonnes of protected coral.

Ocean warming:   Sea-surface temperatures around New Zealand have risen 0.16–0.34°C per decade since 1982, warming faster than the global average. Marine heatwaves are becoming more frequent, intense and longer-lasting, with 2022 setting records causing both  marine species loss and shifting of migratory patterns

Acidification:   Ocean acidity has increased ~30% since 1750, with measurable increases off Otago. This threatens shell-forming species and disrupts food webs negatively impacting fish  nutrition.

Sea level rise:   Accelerating coastal inundation and erosion, compounded by vertical land movement in some areas, resulting in the elimination or reduction of many fish  breeding grounds.

Invasive species and habitat destruction:   428 non-native marine species have been identified in NZ waters, with outbreaks like  Caulerpa  algae spreading across 1,500+ hectares. Bottom trawling continues to bulldoze seafloor habitats.

Extinction risk:  More than half of indigenous marine invertebrate species are threatened or at risk.

Bottom Trawling: The long-term impacts of bottom trawling in New Zealand and the Southern Pacific represent a systematic  and catastrophic degradation of irreplaceable deep-sea ecosystems.  The combination of extreme physical destruction, centuries long destruction of marine habitats and in many cases irretrievable loss, and climate feedback effects is resulting in  permanent biodiversity loss.  Scientific  evidence confirms that protecting climate refugia and  high-vulnerability habitats—particularly seamounts—is essential to  prevent ecosystem collapse and maintain long-term fisheries  productivity, yet current management trends are moving in the opposite  direction.

This  Bill treats fisheries primarily as an export industry to be deregulated, while official reports confirm the marine environment is under compounding pressures from climate change, overfishing, habitat destruction and pollution. The timing is particularly damaging given that camera data revealed a 1,000%+ increase in reported snapper discards and 950% increase in kingfish discards once monitoring began—proof that the industry cannot be relied upon to self-regulate.

The Bill weakens transparency, scientific oversight, and public participation at the exact moment when marine ecosystems require stronger precautionary management and climate-resilient planning. Thus these ‘reforms’ do not represent “modernization”—they represent a privatization agenda that  locks in irreversible ecological damage for short-term commercial gain.

Key Concerns and Proposed Alternatives

1. Tiered Information Framework for Setting Catch Limits (Low-Information Stocks)

The Bill proposes a tiered framework for setting Total Allowable Catch (TAC), where for low-information stocks, the TAC only needs to be ‘not inconsistent’ with the objective of managing the stock at or above Maximum Sustainable Yield. This approach risks over-fishing and depletion of vulnerable or data-poor fish stocks, as management decisions are unable to be based on robust scientific evidence.

This could lead to the plundering of unknown stocks, with potentially irreversible ecological consequences.

Recommendation: The Precautionary Principle  be applied to all data-poor stocks. Instead of allowing higher catch limits, management should default to significantly lower, more conservative catch limits until robust scientific data is available to demonstrate sustainability. Any increases in catch limits should only occur when supported by comprehensive and peer-reviewed scientific assessments.

2. Multi-Year Catch Decisions

The Bill allows the Minister to set TACs for up to five consecutive fishing years . While the stated purposes is  to provide certainty for the industry, this provision introduces reduced flexibility to respond to rapid environmental changes, climate impacts, or unforeseen declines in fish populations. Such extended decision cycles could delay necessary adjustments to protect struggling stocks, potentially leading to collapses that are difficult to reverse.

Recommendation: We recommend implementing Adaptive Management with Frequent Reviews. Catch limits, especially for stocks vulnerable to environmental shifts or those showing signs of stress, should be reviewed annually or more frequently. Decision-making processes must incorporate real-time data and ecosystem indicators to ensure timely and effective responses to changing marine conditions.

3. Relaxed Rules on Discards and Returns

The Bill creates new circumstances under which commercial fishers are permitted to return or abandon fish or other aquatic animals . This relaxation of rules risks increasing the mortality of non-target species (by-catch) and juvenile fish, which are often discarded. This practice not only wastes marine resources but also masks the true impact of fishing on marine ecosystems and hinders accurate stock assessments, making effective management impossible [3].

Recommendation: We call for Mandatory By-catch Reduction and Full Accountability. The government should mandate the widespread use of best- practice by-catch mitigation technologies (e.g., seabird scaring devices, turtle excluder devices, selective fishing gear). In addition, all caught fish, regardless of size or species, must be landed and fully accounted for to ensure accurate data collection, minimize waste, and provide a true picture of fishing impacts [.

4. Confidentiality of Camera Footage

The Bill proposes new provisions that explicitly exclude on-board camera recordings from the Official Information Act 1982 and impose significant penalties for unauthorized release. There appears to be no valid reason for this change, other than  to decrease  public scrutiny of illegal  activities.

This measure represents a substantial reduction in transparency and public accountability of commercial fishing operations. It prevents independent verification of fishing practices, by-catch events, and compliance with regulations, increasing distrust among the public and environmental stakeholders at a time when  all  parties need to be working more collaboratively.

Recommendation: We urge the Committee to ensure Full Transparency and Public Access to on-board camera footage. While noting some issues around commercial sensitivity, this footage should be accessible under the Official Information Act, with redactions only occurring where absolutely necessary. Public oversight is crucial for building trust in the monitoring system and ensuring that fishing practices align with sustainability goals.

5. Revised Judicial Review Window

The Bill introduces a significantly shortened timeframe for challenging fisheries management decisions, requiring any legal challenge to be made within 20 working days of the decision being notified. This extremely short window severely weakens legal safeguards for environmental protection and public participation, making it nearly impossible for environmental organizations and the public to mount effective legal challenges against potentially unsustainable decisions.

Recommendation: We advocate for reasonable  and appropriate Judicial Review timeframes. It is essential to maintain adequate timeframes for judicial review, allowing sufficient time for legal preparation and ensuring that decisions can be properly scrutinized fortheir environmental impact and adherence to legal and scientific requirements.

6. Risks and Opportunities Related to Bottom Trawling

Bottom trawling is widely scientifically recognized for its devastating environmental impacts, including habitat destruction, by-catch, and disruption of marine ecosystems.

The Fisheries Amendment Bill, in not explicitly addressing bottom trawling with the proposed  new regulations, creates an environment where bottom  trawling and its devastating impacts on  the marine environment and fish  stocks, will  continue and could even incentivize this incredibly destructive practice through  the relaxation of camera footage processes and by-catch  rules.

New Zealand is:

  • The only country in the South Pacific that still allows bottom trawling on seamounts
  • The only country whose vessels have bottom trawled in the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) regulatory area since 2019.
  • One of only seven countries still conducting bottom trawling in international waters

Recommendation: We urge the Committee to incorporate specific measures to address bottom trawling. These should include:

  • Ban all bottom trawling by New Zealand fishing companies in the medium and long  term.
  • In the short term ban Bottom Trawling on Seamounts and Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs): Explicitly prohibit bottom-contact gear on seamounts and other identified VMEs to protect unique and fragile deep-sea habitats
  • Provide regulatory or financial incentives for fishers to transition to long-lining, potting, or other low-impact methods that minimize seabed disturbance and by-catch.
  • Mandatory Habitat Impact Assessments: Require comprehensive environmental impact assessments (EIAs) specifically for bottom trawling activities before any multi-year catch limits are set or renewed.
  • Public Transparency of Trawl Impacts: Ensure public access to camera footage of trawling operations to maintain transparency and accountability.
  • Spatial Closures for Recovery: Utilize management procedures to establish and enforce no-trawl zones in areas identified as critical habitats or those requiring ecological recovery.

7. Impact of Climate Change on Fisheries Management

Concern: New Zealand’s marine environment is rapidly  experiencing significant impacts from climate change, including rising sea temperatures, marine heatwaves, and shifting fish distributions.

The current Bill, with its emphasis on multi- year catch decisions and a tiered information framework that can be permissive for data-poor stocks, is ill-equipped to respond to the rapid and unpredictable changes driven by climate change. This lack of adaptive capacity risks exacerbating the vulnerability of fish stocks and marine ecosystems].

Recommendation: The Fisheries Amendment Bill must explicitly integrate climate change considerations into its core framework. This includes:

• Climate-Adaptive Catch Limits: Mandate that all catch limit decisions (TAC/TACC) explicitly account for climate change projections, marine heatwave data, and observed shifts in fish populations.

• Shorten Review Cycles for Vulnerable Stocks: Require annual or more frequent reviews for stocks identified as climate-vulnerable or those showing significant range shifts, moving away from rigid multi-year decisions.

• Protect Climate Refugia: Prohibit destructive fishing methods, such as bottom trawling, in areas that serve as thermal refuges or critical habitats for species displaced by warming waters.

• Dynamic Management Areas: Develop mechanisms to adjust management boundaries quickly as fish stocks shift their geographic ranges, ensuring that newly arrived or displaced stocks are not over-exploited due to outdated management zones.

Conclusion

The New Zealand Fisheries Amendment Bill, in its current form, contains provisions that threaten the short,  medium  and long-term  health and sustainability of New Zealand’s marine environment.

We believe that a truly sustainable and prosperous seafood sector depends on robust environmental protection, scientific integrity, and public trust.

We respectfully request the Committee to give due consideration to these concerns and recommendations.

The Echo-Chamber

Analyzing Coordinated Messaging in Western Foreign Policy & Media

The phenomenon of Western political leaders broadcasting near-identical statements on foreign policy is not a coincidence of shared ‘values’, but rather the result of a highly sophisticated and deliberate system of political synchronization. This commentary explores how “scripted policy” functions across various global flashpoints and how Western media outlets serve as a crucial amplification mechanism for these government narratives.

The table below illustrates a remarkable uniformity in response to an incident involving a supposed attempted assassination of Donald Trump in April 2026. Leaders from Germany, Estonia, France, the United Kingdom, and Greece all used the specific phrase “Political violence has no place in a democracy.”

LeaderKey Phrase UsedStrategic Intent
Friedrich Merz (Germany)“Violence has no place in a democracy.”Reaffirming the rule of law and democratic norms.
Kaja Kallas (Estonia)“Political violence has no place in a democracy.”Aligning with the “Free World” consensus.
Emmanuel Macron (France)“Violence has no place in democracy.”Projecting a unified Western front against instability.
Keir Starmer (UK)“Political violence in any form has no place…”Demonstrating continuity in UK-US relations.

This by no means unique linguistic alignment serves several strategic purposes. This synchronisation is not merely about the sentiment; it is about the signalling their total conformity to the agreed policy. By using identical phrasing, these leaders attempts to signal to both domestic and international audiences that the “Western Alliance” speaks with a single, ‘unbreakable’ voice.

The Ukraine: “As Long As It Takes” Mantra

Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the phrase “as long as it takes” has become the official linguistic mantra for NATO affiliated and G7 nations. This script was designed to project strategic patience and deter Russian calculations that Western support would eventually fatigue.

“We will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support and stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.” — G7 Leaders’ Communiqué

However, as domestic political pressures mount, particularly in the United States, the script has begun to fracture. President Biden’s shift to “as long as we can represents a rare “glitch” in the coordinated messaging, revealing the underlying tensions that the scripts are designed to hide.

In coordination with this Ukraine political message, Western media appear required to state as one that Russia’s attack on Ukraine was not just an invasion, but a ‘full-scale’ invasion.

Israel and Gaza: The “Right to Defend Itself” Premise

In the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the phrase “Israel has the right to defend itself” has served as the foundational premise for almost every official statement from Washington, London, Berlin, and Brussels. This specific wording is used to establish a legal and moral framework before any subsequent concerns about humanitarian issues or civilian casualties are addressed.

This attempt at legitimisation of Western policies by repetition is often managed through G7 Foreign Ministers’ statements, which serve as the “master script” for individual national press releases. This ensures that even when there are internal disagreements about the scale of military operations, the public-facing message remains monolithic.

Venezuela and Iran: The LegitimacyScript

In Venezuela and Iran, the messaging shifts from “defense” to “legitimacy.” The coordinated demand that “Maduro must step down” or the synchronized expressions of “solidarity with the brave people of Iran” are tools of diplomatic pressure.

  1. Venezuela: The recognition of Juan Guaidó in 2019 was a masterclass in scripted diplomacy, with over 50 nations releasing nearly identical statements of recognition within a 48-hour window.
  2. Iran: During the 2022 protests, Western foreign ministers utilized a shared vocabulary of “regime brutality” and “universal rights,” often timed to coincide with the rollout of coordinated sanctions packages.
  3. The Iran wars: Similarly, in the recent war by the US and Israel against Iran we are continually reminded that Iran’s government is a ‘regime’ (implying illegitimacy) whereas Israel (despite its brutal suppression of its Palestinian population) is a legitimate democracy.

The Media as an Echo Chamber: Manufacturing Consent

The effectiveness of these diplomatic scripts relies heavily on the uncritical repetition by major Western media outlets, reminiscent of the age-old dictum of propaganda- repeat the lies frequently enough and people will believe them.

Rather than acting as independent watchdogs providing balanced reporting from both sides so that its readership can fully understand the issues , ‘mainstream’ media organisations often function as “stenographers of state,” a phenomenon famously described by Noam Chomsky and Edward Herman as “Manufacturing Consent.”

Mechanisms of Media Amplification

  • Headline Synchronization: Outlets like The New York Times, BBC, CNN, and Reuters frequently adopt the exact terminology used in government press releases. For instance, the phrase “unprovoked and unjustified” became a standard descriptor for the Ukraine invasion across nearly all mainstream Western news reports within hours of the first official statements.
  • Passive Voice and Framing: Media coverage often mirrors the diplomatic framing of allies. In the case of Gaza, reports frequently use passive voice when describing Palestinian casualties (e.g., “Palestinians died”) while using active voice for Israeli deaths, (e.g. Israeli “civilians were killed by the Iran proxy, Hamas’) effectively softening the impact of the government’s military policies.
  • The “Expert” Circuit: News programs often invite former government officials (political or military) or think-tank analysts who are themselves part of the diplomatic synchronization process. These “experts” reinforce the official talking points, creating a closed loop of information that excludes dissenting perspectives.
  • The “Source”: Where exactly do the original mantras for media and politicians come from? Who develops them?-(what agency and what personnel and what location?) How did the process to pre-agree on regurgitating the same phrases come into existence?
  • Nato’s ‘Cognitive Warfare” programme provides some insights into the process of manipulating the minds of the public to support what otherwise might have been a very unpopular war in Ukraine. The very fact that Western politicians and military have felt the need to manipulate Western public opinion in this way makes it clear that they themselves have significant reservations about the legitimacy of NATO’s and their own actions.

The Impact of Repetition

By constantly repeating these phrases, the media helps to normalize them, transforming a specific political position into an “obvious truth.” When the public hears “Israel has the right to defend itself” or “as long as it takes” repeated across every major news channel, it becomes difficult to question the underlying assumptions of those policies. This repetition creates a “truth-by-repetition” effect, where the volume and frequency of the message replace the need for critical analysis.

NATO’s Cognitive Warfare Programme (CWP) is a blueprint for large-scale perception management. Framed as a defense against authoritarian propaganda, the CWP weaponizes the same tools those same ‘authoritarian regime’s’ use: algorithmic amplification, behavioral microtargeting, and narrative laundering.

NATO’s CWP doesn’t just counter lies; it engineers consent by drowning out dissent under the banner of “strategic truth.

NATO condemns Russian/Chinese disinformation while running classified PSYOPS that manipulate global audiences.

Echo-Chamber Escalation NATO’s AI-driven propaganda tools (e.g., deepfake-enabled “fact checks”) may well be being repurposed to silence dissidents as “foreign agents.”

NATO’s CWP therefore isn’t just a foreign problem—it’s a warning. When institutions normalize cognitive manipulation, every power structure follows suit; they’re part of a global infowar arms race where truth is collateral damage.

What Can You Do?

Follow NATO’s critics (not just its PR).

Archive evidence of narrative shifts over time

Demand transparency—from both NATO and others

“The battlefield is your mind, and the war is already live.” —Anonymous CWP whistleblower

Conclusion

The use of identical statements in Western foreign policy, amplified by a compliant media, is thankfully a double-edged sword. Whilst its intention is to project unity and strength, it can also create a perception of insincerity, lack of nuance and manipulation.

These scripts and their media echo chambers are designed as the “glue” of an increasingly fragile and fractured Western alliance.

But when every leader and every news anchor says exactly the same thing, the message begins to sound less like a principled coordinated stand and more like a pre-recorded propaganda broadcast.

Links

https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/big-data/articles/10.3389/fdata.2024.1452129/full

Israel’s Murderous Collective Psychosis


Expulsion: How Israel’s Undefined Borders, Messianic Ideology, and Permanent War Economy Manufacture Consent for Genocide

The 82%

In March 2025, a Penn State University survey published in Israel’s Haaretz newspaper delivered the following article: 82% of Israeli Jews support the forced expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza, with 47% endorsing the killing of all inhabitants in conquered enemy cities—referencing biblical conquest narratives .

A separate Israel Democracy Institute poll found that over 80% of Israeli Jews believe Israel should consider Palestinian civilian suffering in Gaza only “to a very small extent” when planning military operations .

These figures represent not a spontaneous reaction to October 7, 2023, but the culmination of a 76-year project since the Nakba of 1948 of historical erasure, legalized discrimination, and ideological indoctrination.

Israel’s refusal to define its borders, its dependence on permanent war, the systematic theft of Palestinian land, and the rise of messianic religious extremism have all converged to create what researchers call a “state of permanent potential expansion”—where ethnic cleansing is not an aberration but a structural necessity. A murderous ideology combining white supremacism , ancient Yiddish messianist texts , the collective trauma response to the Holocaust and extreme violence and sadism.


Part I: The Foundation of Erasure—1948 and the Nakba

The Template of Dispossession

The Nakba—the 1948 expulsion of over 700,000 Palestinians—established the blueprint for Israeli land acquisition that continues today. Immediately after that expulsion, Israel controlled 20 million dunams (20,000 km²) of Palestinian land—over three-quarters of all land in Palestine . This was not merely military occupation but the beginning of a legalized system of dispossession.

The “Transfer Committee,” headed by Jewish National Fund (JNF) director Yosef Weitz and approved by David Ben-Gurion, implemented a plan to destroy Palestinian villages and prevent refugee return . Between 360-429 villages were destroyed, with 345 new Jewish communities established on refugee land by 1953 .

The 1950 Absentee Property Law transformed de facto seizure into de jure ownership. This law defined “absentees” so broadly that it included Palestinians who were inside Israeli-controlled territory but temporarily away from their homes . The law allowed the Custodian of Absentee Property to sell confiscated land to the Development Authority, which then transferred it to the Jewish National Fund (JNF)—whose charter restricts land to Jewish ownership only .

The Absence of Borders: A Strategic Choice

When David Ben-Gurion declared Israel’s establishment on May 14, 1948, he deliberately refused to specify borders . This was not administrative negligence but strategic design. To this day, Israel has never defined its international borders beyond those with Egypt and Jordan, while state maps—including those presented by Prime Minister Netanyahu at the United Nations—show Israel covering the full expanse from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea .

The 1949 Armistice Lines were explicitly designated as “without prejudice to future territorial settlements” , creating legal ambiguity that Israel has exploited for 76 years. This refusal to define borders creates what scholars call a “state of permanent potential expansion”—where territory is never finally acquired, only temporarily held, with further expansion always justified as security necessity.


Part II: The Architecture of Discrimination—Legal Apartheid from 1948 to Present

Phase 1: Military Rule (1948-1966)

Palestinian citizens of Israel were subjected to military government until 1966, living under the same British Mandate Defense Laws that Zionists had previously denounced as “inhuman and unjust” . During this period, Israel stripped Palestinian Arabs of a further estimated one million dunams of land through “security” designations and cultivation laws .

Phase 2: The Dual Legal System (1967-Present)

After 1967, Israel described capturing the West Bank and Gaza as “finishing the job”—the job being the ethnic cleansing begun in 1948 . The same pattern of dispossession was repeated, but without even the pretense of equality:

  • Jewish settlers in the West Bank live under Israeli civil law with full rights and protections
  • Palestinians are governed by over 1,800 military orders enforced through military courts with conviction rates exceeding 99%
  • This meets the legal definition of apartheid: an institutionalized regime of systematic racial oppression

The JNF’s Role in Structural Discrimination

The Jewish National Fund(JNF) owns 13% of Israeli land and manages another 80% through the Israel Land Administration, giving it control over 93% of all land in Israel . Its policies explicitly restrict land to Jews only. A 1961 Covenant between the JNF and Israeli government formalized this apartheid structure . Even when the Israeli Supreme Court ruled in 2000 that this discrimination was illegal (Katzir-Qaadan case), the state simply offered to compensate the JNF with equal amounts of land to maintain Jewish-only ownership .

The 2018 Nation-State Law: ‘Legalising’ Supremacy

The “Basic Law: Israel as the Nation-State of the Jewish People” (2018) constitutionalised the hierarchy established in 1948.

The Basic Law:

  • Declares Jewish settlement a national value that the state must encourage and promote
  • States that “the right to exercise national self-determination in the State of Israel is unique to the Jewish people”
  • This makes racially segregated housing official state policy, completing the trajectory from the 1950 Absentee Property Law to constitutional apartheid

Part III: The Permanent War Economy

Israel’s economy is structurally dependent on military conflict.

  • Military spending reached 30.46% of GDP in 1975 and averaged 11.8% from 1960-2024—nearly triple the world average of 2.2%
  • In 2024, military spending hit $46.5 billion (8.78% of GDP), second only to Ukraine globally
  • Defense exports reached $13.1 billion in 2023, representing 2.5% of total GDP and 100% growth since 2018

The Gaza Laboratory

Gaza serves a dual economic function: testing ground and showroom for Israeli military technology. As one analysis notes, “Gaza has become the world’s largest laboratory for drone assassinations and mass killing,” where Palestinians serve as “human test subjects” for commercialized cruelty . Each military offensive—from Operation Cast Lead (2008-2009) to Operation Protective Edge (2014) to the current genocide—acts as a product demonstration for international buyers.

Weapon Diplomacy

Arms exports function as foreign policy tools. Between 2014-2018, Israel was the world’s 8th largest weapons exporter (3.1% of global arms exports) . After the 2020 Abraham Accords, military exports to Arab states surged, reaching record highs of $12.5 billion in 2022 . This creates a feedback loop: military operations against Palestinians generate “combat-proven” technologies that are exported globally, with profits funding further military development.

The Constant War Machine

Israel has maintained continuous military operations since 1948, with major invasions and campaigns occurring in every decade:

Lebanon: Six Invasions in 50 Years :

  • 1978: Operation Litani—20,000 troops occupied southern Lebanon
  • 1982: “Peace for Galilee”—full invasion reaching Beirut, 60,000 troops, 800 tanks
  • 1993: Operation Accountability—displacing 500,000 civilians
  • 1996: Operation Grapes of Wrath—Qana massacre killed 106 civilians in UN compound
  • 2006: July War—34-day conflict with Hezbollah
  • 2024: Third Lebanon War—ground invasion following pager attacks
  • 2025/2026 Current ground invasion with recent temporary cease-fire (April 2026)

Gaza: The Never-Ending Campaign:
Since Hamas’s 2006 election, Israel has conducted Operation Cast Lead (2008-2009), Operation Pillar of Defense (2012), Operation Protective Edge (2014), Operation Guardian of the Walls (2021), Operation Breaking Dawn (2022), and Operation Swords of Iron (2023-present—ongoing genocide).


Part IV: Paramilitary Settler Violence

Settler violence is not random criminality but systematic, politically-motivated terrorism designed to expand territorial control and increasingly formally supported by Israeli Defence Force personel and weaponry.

Historical Evolution:

  • 1980s: Settler violence emerged as a “key factor undermining Palestinian security and livelihoods”
  • 2005-2008: The “price tag” strategy emerged after Israel’s Gaza disengagement, with settlers exacting “prices” against Palestinians in retaliation for any restrictions on settlement expansion
  • 2023-2024: Massive surge in violence. Since October 2023, The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has documented 1,536 settler attacks resulting in 152 Palestinian casualties and 1,226 property damage incidents

The Pattern of Violence:
Settler attacks follow a clear template: physical assaults, arson of homes and mosques, uprooting olive trees, stealing harvests, and blocking access to land. Between January and October 2024, settlers vandalized over 26,100 Palestinian-owned trees . In March 2024 alone, at least seven Palestinians were shot and killed by settlers—the highest monthly fatality count in a decade .

State Complicity:
Israeli forces are frequently present during attacks but refuse to intervene until Palestinians defend themselves . The Israeli government has accelerated the legalization of outposts that serve as bases for violence—regulating 30 illegal outposts in a single day in March 2025 . Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has explicitly called for annexation and dismantling the Palestinian Authority, which has unsurprisingly emboldened settler groups who view displacement as a religious duty .


Part V: The Rise of Messianic Power—Theological Extremism as State Policy

The Demographic and Political Transformation

Over the past ten years Israel has experienced a profound demographic and political shift driven by the explosive growth of religious populations:

Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) Growth:

  • The Haredi community numbers 1,335,000 (13.6% of the population) with a 4% annual growth rate—nearly triple the general Jewish population’s 1.4%
  • Due to a fertility rate of 6.4 children per woman, half of the Haredi sector is under age 16
  • Projections indicate Haredim will constitute 16% of Israel’s population by 2030, and 32% of all Israelis by 2065

Religious Zionist Radicalization:
While Haredim are growing demographically, Religious Zionism has undergone ideological radicalization. The movement that began with Rabbi Zvi Yehuda Kook’s messianic theology has transformed from a moderate political force into the driver of relentless territorial expansion .

From Fringe to Mainstream: The Messianic Takeover

The January 28, 2024 “Victory Conference” marked a watershed moment. At Jerusalem’s International Convention Center, 10 cabinet ministers and 27 Knesset members (nearly one-quarter of parliament) gathered to call for:

  • The conquest of Gaza
  • Expulsion of its Palestinian population
  • Renewal of Jewish settlement in Gaza and Northern Samaria

Speakers quoted the Book of Numbers: “Then you shall drive out all the inhabitants of the land”—a Blibical Old Testament ‘commandment’ interpreted literally to justify ethnic cleansing .

Netanyahu’s Transformation of Likud:
Benjamin Netanyahu deliberately transformed Likud from a secular nationalist party into a vehicle for religious extremism. As Hebrew University political scientist Gayil Talshir documents, Netanyahu “took a right-wing, national-oriented, liberal party and pulled it hard to the edge,” introducing “extremist religious and messianic elements into the heart of Likud” .

The Temple Mount Movement: Eschatology as Foreign Policy

The Temple Mount movement exemplifies how messianic ideology has been weaponized for territorial expansion. Once considered radical fringe, it has become mainstream through government support:

Ideological Evolution:

  • Pre-1967: Visiting the Temple Mount was forbidden by all leading rabbis as violating Jewish law
  • 1996: The Committee of Yesha Rabbis ruled that Jews “are permitted and even encouraged to enter the Temple Mount” to prevent territorial compromise
  • 2005: The Gaza disengagement caused “the final breakdown of the Kookist interpretation,” making the Temple a “substitute for the messianic vision”
  • 2020s: Support among Likud MKs grew “from virtually nil to almost half”

Government Funding and Support:

  • The Temple Institute received approximately $361,000 from the Ministry of Education and $210,000 from the Ministry of Culture and Sports between 2010-2015
  • Israeli public schools “indoctrinate children” into the movement, “forcefully exposing students to the Temple movements’ versions of history, ideology and Jewish law regarding the Temple Mount”
  • By 2016, Israel’s Chief Ashkenazi Rabbi David Lau publicly declared he wanted to see a temple built in the Noble Sanctuary

Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Ascent:
The appointment of Itamar Ben-Gvir (former disciple of Meir Kahane) as Minister of National Security represents the ultimate fusion of messianic ideology and state power. Ben-Gvir, who was convicted of supporting terrorism and inciting racism, now oversees the police force that once investigated him .

In June 2024, Ben-Gvir declared: “We say in the simplest way, it’s ours” regarding the Temple Mount, adding “We are the masters of Jerusalem and all of the land of Israel” . This is not religious fundamentalism but ultra-nationalism using religion as justification—what scholar Motti Inbari calls “theocratic post-Zionism” .


Part VI: Manufacturing Consent—Education, Media, and the Psychology of Denial

Educational Indoctrination

Israeli education systematically suppresses the Nakba and cultivates militarized nationalism:

  • Military jargon penetration: Classrooms use military terminology that “trivializes military discourse and mode of thinking”
  • Pseudo-military memorial services for fallen soldiers socialize children into militarized nationalism
  • School excursions to military bases and the “Next Generation” (HaDor HaBa) programs cultivate “civilian soft militarism”
  • Textbooks that mention massacres like Deir Yassin justify them because “the slaughter of friendly Palestinians brought about the flight of other Palestinians which enabled the establishment of a coherent Jewish state”
  • The 2011 Nakba Law criminalizes historical truth in educational settings

State-Sponsored Historical Revisionism

Benny Morris, the Israeli historian who documented Nakba atrocities, revealed that Israel’s Defense Ministry operates a secret department (Malmab) that systematically removes historical documents from archives to prevent documentation of 1948 atrocities . Morris himself was denied access to documents he had previously quoted, with archivists stating simply: “now the documents are closed” . This represents what scholars term “memoricide”—the systematic destruction of collective memory .

Media Manufacturing Consent

Research from UCLA’s Study of Hate demonstrates how media framing reinforces educational indoctrination :

  • British media used emotive terms like “atrocities,” “slaughter,” and “massacre” 11 times more frequently for Israeli victims than Palestinian victims, despite disproportionate death tolls
  • 80% of British media articles framed the conflict as “Israel-Hamas war,” aligning with Israeli-preferred narratives that obscure the occupation’s structural violence
  • Israeli attacks were described vaguely while Palestinian actions included weaponry specifications in 99.3% of articles versus 20.5% for IDF attacks

Israeli domestic media has become even more extreme. Channel 14 has been accused by human rights organizations of “incitement to genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity” .

The Psychological Mechanism of Selective Trauma

The system operates through what researchers call “competing historical truths” where empathy is systematically directed toward one group and denied to another . By suppressing the Nakba and framing Palestinians as eternal enemies, Israeli society maintains what psychologist Vamik Volkan terms “chosen trauma”—the selection of historical wounds (the Holocaust) that justify present aggression, while denying the other’s trauma (the Nakba) .

The Penn State study found that 65% of Israeli Jews believe in a modern-day “Amalek” (biblical enemy), with 93% believing the commandment to “wipe out the memory of Amalek” applies today . This transforms ethnic cleansing from a historical crime into a divine obligation, with Palestinians cast as successors to biblical enemies.


Part VII: The Self-Perpetuating Cycle—Connecting All Threads

Each element of Israeli/Zionist ‘lore’ reinforces the others:

1. Undefined Borders Enable Constant Expansion

Without defined borders, every military operation can be framed as border security rather than foreign invasion. The messianic belief in “Greater Land of Israel” sanctifies the entire territory from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean as divine judgement, making border definition not just politically difficult but theologically impossible .

2. Permanent War Requires Permanent Enemies

The military economy requires constant conflict to maintain funding and test technologies. As the Security in Context analysis notes, “Israel has positioned itself as a global exemplar in urban militarism and securitization, leveraging its experience in the Palestinian territories” . This creates an incentive for military escalation rather than diplomatic resolution or de-escalation.

3. Discrimination Legitimizes Dispossession

The 82% support for expelling Palestinians connects directly to the economic system. When Finance Minister Smotrich states that Ben-Gurion’s “mistake” was not “finishing the job” in 1948 , he articulates the logical conclusion of the permanent war economy: complete territorial control requires demographic transformation.

4. Settler Violence as Paramilitary Enforcement

Systematic settler attacks are used as irregular forces for territorial expansion, operating with state complicity. The 1,536 attacks since October 2023 are not aberrations but policy implementation by other means.

5. Messianism Provides Theological Justification

The messianist right has captured the education system, media, and legal structures to produce the 82% consensus. As Gayil Talshir, professor of political science at Hebrew University observes, Netanyahu has become both master and marionette of this system—using messianists for political survival while being forced to conform to their agenda .

6. The Feedback Loop to Maintain the Murderous Onslaught

The feedback loop is complete: military operations generate “combat-proven” technologies for export → export revenues fund further military R&D (4.5% of GDP—highest in OECD) → military service socializes citizens into militarized nationalism → this produces public support (82%) for further military operations → which justify further territorial expansion under “security” pretexts.


The Unbroken Chain from 1948 to 2024

The 82% support for expulsion, the settler violence, the media complicity, and the educational indoctrination are not aberrations but the logical culmination of a system established in 1948. The Nakba was not a historical event but a template for ongoing dispossession—legalized through the Absentee Property Law, normalized through education, justified through religious ideology, and enforced through settler violence.

As the Penn State researchers noted, October 7 “unleashed demons that have been nurtured over decades in the media and in the legal and educational systems” . Those demons were born in 1948, when Israel chose not to define its borders, and have been fed by every military operation, every land confiscation, and every act of discrimination since.

The “Victory Conference” warning was clear: if Netanyahu compromises on territory, he will be replaced by someone who won’t. The messianists have “cracked the genetic code of how to control the political system in Israel,” offering Netanyahu “great respect and the role of leader of the people” while receiving “dramatic control of the deeper structures of society: the education system, the media, the judiciary, the economy and of course the occupied territories” .

The 82% are not naturally evil individuals. They are the product of a system that has, for three generations, taught them that Palestinian suffering is instrumental to Jewish security, that ethnic cleansing is divine commandment, and that permanent war is the only possible condition.

Until this system is dismantled—its borders defined, its military economy transformed, its messianist ideology challenged, and its historical truths acknowledged—the cycle of dispossession will continue, with each generation finding new justifications for the ancient crime of 1948.

While the U.N. and the West push for a ‘two-state solution” and a return to the 1967 borders, the reality is that a new Palestine is no longer a viable economic or security option because of the destruction caused by Israel in the intervening years. Only a single state solution is now possible. A state where Palestinians and Israelis live side by side in peace, and where democratic rights for all citizens are respected and upheld.

That will require a comprehensive re-education programme for the 80% Israelis who currently favour genocide to learn how to respect those who they have been conditioned to consider as ‘other”. It can be done, and post-apartheid South Africa can serve as a somewhat imperfect model for this process.


Sources and Further Reading

Polling Data and Public Opinion:

Historical Documentation:

Economic Analysis:

Messianism and Politics:

Education and Media:

Settler Violence:

Demographic Data:


This article synthesizes peer-reviewed research, UN reports, and investigative journalism to present a comprehensive analysis of the structural factors behind current Israeli public opinion. All statistics and claims are linked to verifiable sources.

How Gulf Oil Disruptions Threaten Australia and New Zealand’s Energy Security

The Global Context: A Crisis Without Precedent

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created what the International Energy Agency calls “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market” . Flows through the Strait—normally carrying 20 million barrels daily—have fallen to “a trickle,” with oil exports from Gulf producers dropping from approximately 20 million barrels per day to just 3.8 mb/d in early April .

This isn’t just about crude oil. The crisis has triggered unprecedented price spikes in refined products, with Singapore middle distillate prices reaching all-time highs above $290/barrel . For Australia and New Zealand—nations at the end of global supply chains—the implications are immediate and severe.


Price Forecasts: What to Expect by June 2026

Given that the war against Iran by Israel and the US is an existential one for Iran- i.e. Israel, and likely the US’s intent, is to destroy Iran as a cohesive state and break it into statelets who can no longer pose a threat to Israel’s Greater Israel project or disrupt future US control over Iranian oil, any peace agreement for Iran must include continued control over the State of Hormuz to ensure the state of Iran’s continued viability. It is unlikely that the US will concede to this in the short to medium term, especially given the control that Israel currently has over US foreign policy.

Additionally, should the US attempt further substantial attacks on Iranian infrastructure after the ceasefire likely ends on May 20th 2026, Iran has promised to destroy other Gulf States energy infrastructure.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or severely constrained through June 2026 or longer, energy markets face a prolonged supply crisis with cascading price effects:

Crude Oil and Refined Product Prices

ProductCurrent/Recent PriceJune 2026 Forecast (Hormuz Closed)Source
Brent Crude~$103/bbl (March avg)$115+/bbl (EIA peak forecast for Q2 2026)
Singapore Gasoil (Diesel)$192/bbl (April)$200-250+/bbl (IEA alternative scenario)
Singapore Jet FuelSurged 114% since Feb 28$250-300+/bbl (record highs sustained)
VLSFO (Bunker Fuel)S$2.30/litre (Singapore)S$2.50-3.00+/litre (competing demand from refiners)
Australian Retail DieselAUD $3.20+/litreAUD $3.50-4.00+/litre (potential doubling if crisis persists)
Australian Retail Petrol~$2.20/litre (post-excise cut)AUD $2.50-3.00/litre
US Retail Diesel~$5.80/gallon (April peak)$6.00-7.00+/gallon

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has presented two scenarios: a base case assuming gradual resumption of Hormuz flows by mid-year, and an alternative “prolonged conflict” case where “energy markets and economies around the world need to brace for significant disruptions in the months to come”. Under the prolonged conflict scenario, physical crude prices could sustain levels near $150/bbl, with refined products trading at unprecedented premiums .

As of mid-April 2026, oil futures traders are maintaining an almost constant West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price per barrel of around $100 US, while real Dated oil prices hover around the $140 mark. Futures traders are for some reason responding to oft repeated wild claims by Trump that victory, a peace agreement or at least an opening of the Straits, is imminent.

The IEA estimates it will take 2 years for global oil supplies to return to their previous levels once the Strait is reopened because of the extensive damage to Gulf refineries, storage facilities and docks.

Key Price Drivers

  • Diesel shortage structural: The IEA estimates 3-4 million barrels per day of diesel supply loss (5-12% of global consumption) directly tied to Hormuz disruptions
  • Refinery capacity offline: Middle East and Asian refineries cut runs by ~6 mb/d in April, tightening global product markets
  • Brent-WTI spread widening: The spread reached $12/bbl in March and is projected to peak at $15/bbl in April, reflecting Asian supply anxiety

Australia: The Diesel Nation at Breaking Point

The Dependency Problem

Australia is perhaps the most vulnerable developed nation to a liquid fuel emergency. In FY2021, 91% of all fuel consumed in Australia was imported—including 68% as refined products and imported crude for our remaining refineries .

Over the past 20 years, Australia like many other Western countries has substantially reduced the number of oil refineries on shore, opting instead for those refineries to become solely storage facilities for distilled oil products; predominantly from Asia. Two active refineries remain in Australia with the smaller one recently impacted by a refinery fire.

Australia sits at the end of a complex supply chain stretching thousands of kilometers from Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, and Japan. While only a small fraction of their diesel imports come directly from the Middle East, almost half of the crude oil for production of that diesel originates in the Middle East when traced back through those Asian refineries.

The Diesel Consumption Profile

Australia’s economy runs on diesel. In 2025, the nation consumed approximately 35 billion litres of diesel—far exceeding the 15 billion litres of petrol and 10 billion litres of aviation fuel . The consumption breakdown reveals critical vulnerabilities:Table

SectorDiesel ShareAnnual ConsumptionVulnerability Level
Mining40% of total diesel~14 billion litresCRITICAL
Road Transport/Trucking24%~8.4 billion litresHIGH
Agriculture8%~2.8 billion litresHIGH
Manufacturing7%~2.5 billion litresMEDIUM
Marine/RailSignificant~3+ billion litresMEDIUM
Passenger Vehicles~25% of remainder~4+ billion litresMEDIUM

Australia has one of the highest per capita diesel demands in the world—7.4 barrels per person annually—far exceeding the US and other major economies .

The Refinery Crisis

Australia’s domestic refining capacity has collapsed. Five refineries closed over the last decade, leaving just two operational: Ampol’s Lytton refinery in Brisbane and Viva’s Geelong refinery in Victoria. These facilities were already struggling before the current crisis—and then came the April 2026 fire at Geelong.

The fire at Viva Energy’s Geelong refinery—built in the 1950s—shut down critical units. As analyst Kevin Morrison noted: “This creates the conditions for higher prices, as it pushes up international demand for refined products when supply is massively constrained. It could not happen at a worse time.” Victoria alone consumes 252,000 barrels of fuel daily—41% diesel, 22% jet fuel—and now faces sourcing these volumes from already-tight Asian markets.

The structural problem? Our remaining refineries are configured to produce mostly petrol rather than aviation fuel and diesel—precisely the fuels most critical for agriculture, road freight, mining, and defense .

Stockholding: The 90-Day Myth

Australia has been in breach of International Energy Agency (IEA) obligations since 2012. The IEA requires 90 days of net import coverage; Australia holds just 68 IEA days, and when measured against actual consumption, this equates to roughly 30-34 days of real fuel security .

The government counts “fuel in transit”—on foreign-flagged tankers in foreign ports—toward reserves. But as the Australia Institute notes: “In the event of a global emergency, there is no guarantee that the oil that Australia has been promised access to… would be practically accessible.” These ships are not Australian vessels; they sail under foreign flags and owe no allegiance to Australian fuel security.

With the Strait closed, Australia is now pulling diesel along some of the longest and most expensive trade routes in the world—13,000-mile journeys from the US Gulf Coast taking up to two months .

Mining Sector: The $4.5 Billion Diesel Addiction

The mining industry is Australia’s most diesel-exposed sector, consuming approximately 9.6 billion litres annually—roughly 40% of national diesel consumption and 10% of total national energy use . The sector operates more than 50,000 large diesel-powered trucks, each consuming approximately 900,000 litres annually .

Cost Impact Calculations:

  • At pre-crisis diesel prices (~AUD $1.75/litre), a large mine’s annual fuel bill for a 200hp tractor running 1,500 hours was ~$74,000
  • At current prices (~AUD $2.25-2.50/litre), that same operation costs $100,000-112,000 annually—a 35-50% increase
  • If prices reach $3.50-4.00/litre by June, costs could double from the original baseline

According to S&P Global and BMO estimates using Wood Mackenzie data, every 10% increase in oil prices drives mining cost increases of:

  • Iron ore: +4.2% mining costs
  • Copper: +3.5% mining costs
  • Gold: +2% mining costs

With crude oil potentially averaging $100+/bbl (47% above 2025 average), mining costs could rise 16-20% for bulk commodities .

Operational Risks: The mining industry faces a shutdown timeline measured in weeks if diesel supplies are interrupted:

  • Best-positioned mines: 4-8 weeks of operational capacity
  • Typical remote diesel-heavy mines: 2-6 weeks before curtailment
  • Weakest operations: Days to 2 weeks

The ASX Materials Index has already plunged 20.3% since the conflict began, with fund managers dumping stocks amid fears of fuel shortages forcing production cuts .

Agriculture: Harvest Season Crisis

Australian agriculture consumes approximately 2.5 billion litres of diesel annually, with diesel accounting for 84% of on-farm energy consumption . The crisis has hit at the worst possible time—during harvest season when fuel demand peaks .

Impact on Farm Economics:

  • A farm using 80,000 litres annually faced fuel costs of ~$140,000 at $1.75/litre pre-crisis
  • At current $2.25+/litre, costs have jumped to $180,000+ annually—a $40,000+ increase per farm
  • If diesel reaches $3.50/litre by June, that same farm faces $280,000 annual fuel costsdouble pre-crisis levels

Farmers are already making critical decisions about whether to proceed with crops given uncertainty about diesel allocations later in the year . Adding diesel and freight costs means nearly 60% of farmers’ cost base is increasing rapidly .

The Fuel Tax Credits Scheme (FTCS)—which provides AU$4.5 billion annually to mining and AU$1.3 billion to agriculture—has become a critical but increasingly inadequate buffer .

Food Supply Chain: From Farm to Shelf

Australia’s food supply chain is diesel-dependent at every stage:

  • Production: Tractors, harvesters, irrigation pumps
  • Processing: Generators, machinery
  • Distribution: Road trains, trucking (24% of national diesel consumption)

Higher diesel costs cascade through the food system:

  • Transport costs increase directly with fuel prices
  • Processing costs rise due to diesel-powered equipment
  • Retail prices must absorb these increases or face margin compression

The Australian Industry Group warns that disruption to fuel markets creates cascading supply chain impacts, with businesses already reporting fuel-related operational challenges .

Tourism and Aviation

The tourism sector faces a triple hit:

  1. Jet fuel costs: Singapore jet fuel surged 114% since February 28
  2. Airfare increases: AirAsia X has increased fares by up to 40% due to fuel costs
  3. Ground transport: Higher petrol and diesel costs affect rental cars, tour buses, and visitor travel patterns

Air New Zealand has already canceled 1,100 flights impacting over 44,000 passengers between March and early May due to fuel cost pressures .

The Australian Government Response

On March 30, 2026, the Australian National Cabinet activated the National Fuel Security Plan, currently at Level 2 (“Keeping Australia Moving”) . Measures include:

  • Halving fuel excise from 52.6 cents to 20.6 cents per litre for three months
  • Temporarily reducing minimum stockholding obligations by 20% for diesel and petrol
  • Amending fuel quality standards to allow higher sulfur levels, releasing ~100 million litres/month of additional petrol supply
  • Appointing a Fuel Security Taskforce Coordinator
  • Underwriting additional fuel cargoes and strategic reserves

However, energy analysts question whether the excise cut was optimally targeted. Macquarie University’s Lurion De Mello notes: “Petrol is not the pain point. Diesel is the pain point” . Deakin University’s Samantha Hepburn warns: “Any disruption in diesel supply or sustained high prices… will directly affect production capacity, increase operating costs and ultimately push up food prices” .

The Australia Institute recommends accelerating electric vehicle adoption to reduce petrol demand, thereby freeing refining capacity for diesel and jet fuel security .


New Zealand: The Marsden Point Gamble

The Refinery Closure Decision

New Zealand made a calculated bet in 2022—and now faces the consequences. The Marsden Point refinery, which produced half the country’s petrol, two-thirds of diesel, and most jet fuel, was converted to an import terminal. The rationale was economic: the refinery was inefficient by international standards, and importing refined products from mega-refineries in Asia was cheaper.

The government and industry argued this improved security: “Closing the refinery has actually improved our security of supply, as there is now more than twice as much fuel on the water to replenish domestic stocks than when we produced it locally.”

But this logic contains a fatal flaw. New Zealand no longer imports crude oil—but the Asian refineries we depend on do. In 2024, New Zealand’s top four source countries (Singapore, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan) sourced almost 80% of their crude oil imports from Persian Gulf countries .

As MFAT’s July 2025 analysis states: “In the event of disruption of Middle Eastern supply, Asian refineries would be forced to source crude product from elsewhere, pushing up the global price for oil” . New Zealand faces indirect but severe exposure to Gulf disruptions through our refined product suppliers.

Current stock levels provide approximately 47 days of diesel, 51 days of petrol, and 49 days of jet fuel coverage—better than Australia but still precarious if Asian refining capacity falters .

As of mid-April 2026, the New Zealand government’s sole strategy has been to monitor the volume and consequent days left of the various oil substrates in the country. The reality is that the risks to New Zealand’s economy are the combined factors of stocks available and the cost at the pump of those stocks New Zealand may well find that by June there are still tankers available to supply oil substrates to New Zealand but at a price that is unaffordable to the public.

Already truck operators are warning of hugely increased supermarket food prices in the pipeline because of the massively increased transport costs involved in supplying the supermarkets from New Zealand’s highly centralised grocery supply chain. Decentralisation of essential services across new Zealand is thus a very urgent priority.

Economic Impact Forecasts

ASB Bank has downgraded New Zealand’s growth outlook due to the fuel crisis, forecasting:

  • GDP growth slowing through 2026
  • Inflation rising toward 4% before easing in 2027
  • Households facing $4,000-6,000 annual hit if fuel prices stay elevated

Westpac identifies tourism as particularly vulnerable, forecasting that “the most direct impact of the shock on exports will likely show up in falling visitor numbers” due to flight disruptions, higher airfares, and consumer reluctance to travel internationally during heightened tensions .

Tourism Sector Impact

New Zealand’s tourism sector—still recovering from COVID-19—faces severe headwinds:

  • Flight cancellations and route reductions: Air New Zealand has already cut capacity
  • Higher airfares: Jet fuel costs have surged 114%, forcing ticket price increases
  • Reduced international visitor numbers: Westpac expects reversal of recent strong growth in arrivals
  • Domestic tourism pressure: Higher petrol prices reduce Kiwis’ willingness to travel domestically

Regional Variations: Regions dependent on self-drive tourism—West Coast, Tasman, Southland, Gisborne—face particular pressure. These areas already have disproportionate visitor spending on fuel, primarily because of a lack of local international airports, making them vulnerable to petrol price volatility .

Tourism Industry Aotearoa reports businesses are experiencing “sharp increase in business costs as a result of the leap in fuel prices” . The NZX50 fell nearly 6% in March 2026, with travel and tourism stocks—including Serko, Air New Zealand, Tourism Holdings, SkyCity Entertainment, and Auckland International Airport—among the hardest hit .

The Political Reckoning

The Marsden Point closure has become politically contentious. New Zealand First MP Shane Jones, now Associate Energy Minister, has called the previous government’s decision “reckless.” Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold has challenged critics: “Would you close it if it was open today?”

Reopening Marsden Point is likely impossible. The refinery was configured to process imported Middle Eastern crude—not New Zealand’s own light, sweet domestic production, which is entirely exported. Even if the infrastructure remained intact (it doesn’t), the facility couldn’t process local oil.

Government Response

New Zealand has activated its Fuel Response Plan 2026, currently in Phase 1: Watchful . The plan outlines four clear phases responding proportionately to fuel security risks, assessed separately for petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. The government is:

  • Monitoring fuel stocks and shipments
  • Publishing twice-weekly stock updates
  • Coordinating with international partners
  • Preparing demand reduction measures if needed

MBIE emphasizes: “There is no need to change how you purchase fuel. Sticking to your usual habits helps keep the system running smoothly” .

However this ‘plan” does not seem to acknowledge the high probability of both lack of, and high prices for diesel, jet fuel and bunker oil in the longer term. Strategies that prioritise and create backup storage now for essential fuel service issues such as food transportation and health and emergency services are sadly lacking.

Its also important to acknowledge that for New Zealand to continue to received international shipping and jet flights it needs to have adequate fuel storage for that transport to return to their original port.


The Bunker Fuel Dimension

Both Australia and New Zealand face parallel challenges with marine fuel. Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO)—the 0.5% sulphur fuel required by IMO 2020 regulations—depends on specific low-sulphur crude grades that are now being competed for by refiners seeking diesel replacements.

Australian and New Zealand ports rely on Singapore and regional refineries for bunker fuel. As Vortexa analysis warns: with Hormuz disruptions, bunkering hubs like Singapore, Malaysia, and the Netherlands could face VLSFO supply shortages as refiners outbid bunker blenders for suitable crude grades .

This threatens not just commercial shipping but coastal trade, fishing fleets, and offshore industries that keep both economies functioning.


Strategic Implications & Recommendations

For Australia:

  1. Diesel is the vital risk: Agriculture, mining, and road freight depend on diesel. The BADSP program addresses storage but not supply diversity .
  2. Refining vulnerability: Two aging refineries cannot meet national demand. The Geelong fire demonstrates how quickly capacity can be lost .
  3. Transit risk: 21+ days of “reserves” exist only on paper—on foreign ships that may never arrive in a crisis .
  4. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve access: The 2020 agreement to access US reserves sounds reassuring, but fuel would take three weeks to reach Australia—and in a global crisis, American domestic needs would take precedence .
  5. Mining sector transition: Rio Tinto’s renewable diesel trials at Boron and Kennecott mines show potential, but these transitions were planned for 2030-2050—not 2026 .

For New Zealand:

  1. Refined product dependency: 100% reliance on Asian refineries creates single-point-of-failure risk .
  2. Indirect Gulf exposure: While NZ doesn’t import Gulf crude directly, our suppliers do—making us hostage to their sourcing challenges .
  3. Storage limitations: Current stock levels are adequate for normal operations but insufficient for prolonged disruption .
  4. No refining fallback: Unlike Australia, New Zealand has zero domestic refining capacity to fall back on .
  5. Tourism vulnerability: The sector’s recovery from COVID-19 faces reversal due to fuel costs and flight disruptions .

And let us also not forget the hugely significant global impacts of the loss of 20% of the world’s synthetic fertilisers, of sulphuric acid, and of LNG because of the Straits’ closure and the partial destruction of refining in the Gulf states.

The Path Forward

Both nations face the same fundamental challenge: they are price-takers in a volatile market, with limited ability to influence supply or substitute fuels in the short term.

Both Australia and New Zealand have optimised for economic efficiency (Just In Time processes) over energy security. In a world of renewed geopolitical conflict and supply chain fragility, that calculation desperately needs revision.

Increasing frequency and intensity of global weather events will undoubtedly and increasingly put severe pressure on global supply chains . Transitioning to a less oil dependant economy and one which is less dependant on global supply chains for all essential services, is vital.


Sources:

  • Australia Institute: “Over a Barrel: Addressing Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security”
  • Australian Government: National Fuel Security Plan
  • Australian Industry Group: “Fuel Supply and Supply Chain Watch”
  • ABC News: “Energy analysts raise concerns on fuel excise cut”
  • Commonwealth Bank: “How Aussie farmers are navigating fuel and fertiliser pressures”
  • Deloitte Access Economics via Financial Post: “Australian Fuel Supply to Get Even Tighter After Refinery Fire”
  • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2026
  • Fortune: “Oil prices may be falling, but for the wrong reason”
  • IEA Oil Market Report, April 2026
  • IEEFA: “Mining’s costly diesel addiction must be a budget priority”
  • Living More With Less: “Implications of the Iran war on Australia’s Fuel Supplies”
  • MFAT: “NZ economy not immune to conflict in the Middle East”
  • MBIE: “Middle East conflict and New Zealand’s fuel stocks”
  • Newsroom: “Economic growth forecasts downgraded as fuel price rise bites”
  • NZ Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment: “Understanding variability in tourism spend”
  • P2P Agri: “Iran Fuel Crisis and Australian Farm Costs”
  • RenewEconomy: “Diesel replacement: Australia’s billion-dollar opportunity”
  • The Oregon Group: “Strait of Hormuz diesel shock threatens mining industry”
  • Transporting NZ: “Energy security – was closing Marsden Point a mistake?”
  • Vortexa/IEA analysis on VLSFO supply and bunker fuel markets
  • Westpac IQ: “NZ business feedback on recent oil price moves”
  • World Socialist Web Site: “War-driven fuel crisis threatens recession in Australia”
  • https://energyandresilience.substack.com/p/the-limits-to-the-energy-transition

Racism and the Iran War


How White Supremacy Fuels the West’s Assault on Iran

From the 1953 Coup to the 2026 War—A Pattern of Racialized Resource Theft

The bombs falling on Iranian schools, hospitals, and residential neighborhoods in early 2026 are not merely acts of war. They are the violent expression of a centuries-old ideology: white supremacy. The United States and Israel’s assault on Iran represents the latest chapter in a colonial playbook where non-white nations are systematically dehumanized, their sovereignty violated, and their resources plundered—all under the guise of “democracy,” “security,” or “civilization.”

To understand the current conflict, we must strip away the propaganda and examine the racial and economic architecture that has driven Western policy toward Iran for over seven decades.


The Original Sin: 1953 and the Birth of Modern Iran Policy

The template was set in August 1953, when the CIA and MI6 orchestrated a coup against Iran’s democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh. His crime? Nationalizing Iran’s oil industry to free his people from British Petroleum’s colonial extraction. The response from London and Washington was not diplomacy—it was regime change through terror.

Operation Ajax deployed “paid terrorists within Iran to stir up trouble,” as CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt arrived with suitcases of cash to bribe newspaper editors, manufacture protests, and create a sham communist threat . The Shah was restored, Savak (his brutal secret police) was trained by the CIA, and 40% of Iran’s oil fields were signed over to U.S. companies . Some 300 Iranians died in the streets so that white-controlled corporations could maintain their grip on Persian oil.

This was not about communism. It was about race and resources. As the Zinn Education Project notes, American textbooks still sanitize this history, claiming the CIA merely “backed” a coup rather than orchestrating a terrorist campaign against a democratic government .


The “Regime” Label: 47 Years of Racialized Delegitimization

Since the 1979 revolution, Western media has religiously referred to Iran’s government as a “regime”—a term rarely applied to Western allies like Saudi Arabia, despite its absolute monarchy and routine beheadings. This linguistic violence serves a purpose: it transforms a sovereign nation into a rogue entity requiring “management” by civilized (white) powers.

The double standard is stark. The Gulf States are “kingdoms” despite being hereditary dictatorships. Israel is a “democracy” despite maintaining an apartheid system over millions of Palestinians. But Iran—whose people have participated in more genuine electoral contests than most U.S. allies in the region—is perpetually a “regime.”

This vocabulary reflects what scholar Vijay Prashad calls “the darker nations” thesis: the global South exists in the Western imagination only as a problem to be solved, never as equals with legitimate interests.


The 2025-2026 Wars and School Children

The Twelve-Day War of June 2025 and the subsequent 2026 conflict have revealed the true character of Western-Israeli military doctrine. When Israeli and U.S. forces bombed the Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls’ Elementary School in Minab on February 28, 2026, killing at least 168 people including scores of children, they were continuing a tradition of racialized warfare .

Satellite imagery confirmed the strike was likely conducted by a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile. The Pentagon’s response? “We’re investigating.” President Trump suggested Iran bombed its own school. This is the logic of supremacy: brown children’s lives are collateral damage in a game where only white strategic interests matter .

The pattern is deliberate. DAWN (Democracy for the Arab World Now) documented scores of schools, health facilities, and fuel depots bombed by U.S. and Israeli forces, with white phosphorus dropped on civilian communities . These are not accidents. They are war crimes rooted in the belief that Iranian lives are expendable.

As DAWN’s Omar Shakir stated: “The international community’s failure to act when the most fundamental norms of international law are being challenged risks plunging the world further into a lawless era” . But this “lawlessness” is selective—it applies only when non-white nations assert sovereignty over their resources.


The Chosen People Narrative: Israel’s Racial Theology

Central to this conflict is Israel’s self-conception as “the chosen people”—a theological framework that has been weaponized into a license for ethnic cleansing. The “Greater Israel” project, stretching from the Euphrates to the Nile, requires the removal or subjugation of non-Jewish populations. This is not ancient history; it is current Israeli government policy. Israel is the only country in the world that does not have defined borders; since its inception in 1948, it has constantly expanded its borders in order to fulfil its founders’ messianistic dream of a Greater Israel

The genocidal attacks on Palestinians—documented by the UN Commission of Inquiry as war crimes and crimes against humanity—are the laboratory for techniques now being deployed against Iran . When Israeli forces disguised themselves as medical personnel to kill 41 civilians in Lebanon in March 2026, they were demonstrating that perfidy is permissible against non-white enemies .

The infantile belief in divine selection—used to justify the maiming, murder, and terrorizing of non-Israelis—finds its parallel in American exceptionalism. Both ideologies depend on the fundamental dehumanization of the Other. Both require the constant manufacturing of existential threats to maintain racial hierarchy.


The Real Target: Oil, Hormuz, and the Anxiety of White Decline

Strip away the rhetoric about Iranian nuclear weapons—despite Ayatollah Khomeini’s fatwa against them—and the true object of Western aggression becomes visible: oil and strategic control.

Iran’s insistence on uranium enrichment is not about bombs; it is about energy sovereignty. The West Asian region contains the world’s most critical petroleum reserves, and the Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint through which global capitalism breathes. When Iran asserts control over its own energy destiny, it threatens the white-dominated global order.

The 1953 coup was about oil. The decades of sanctions are about oil. The current war is about oil. The “white supremacist view that these other non-white people are inferior” serves to legitimize the theft of their resources. As one analyst noted, even “precision warfare” against Iranian targets killed thousands of civilians—a “stark reminder” that technological sophistication does not erase racialized brutality .


The Complicity of the “International Community”

The West’s Gulf allies—Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar—play their assigned roles in this racialized hierarchy. These “kingdoms” (never “regimes”) provide cover for the assault on Iran, their own populations suppressed by the same security apparatuses supplied by Washington and London. They are the house managers of the white supremacist estate in West Asia.

Meanwhile, Western media continues its 47-year project of manufacturing consent. The war is framed as “defensive,” Iranian retaliation as “terrorism,” and civilian casualties as unfortunate necessities. When Iranian missiles strike military targets in Israel, it is an outrage; when U.S. missiles destroy Iranian schools, they are “tragic mistakes” .

Forty-seven years of Western and UN sanctions on Iran have also resulted in many Iranian deaths through loss of access to essential services and increasing poverty. The supposed rationale for the sanctions was that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon- something that Iran has consistently declared it was not going to do. It is abundantly clear that Iran, with its very sophisticated academic and industrial capacity, could have developed nuclear weapons decades ago if it had wished to.

This is the epistemic violence that accompanies physical violence—the systematic erasure of non-white agency, pain, and legitimate grievance.


Breaking the Cycle

The war on Iran is not an aberration. It is the continuation of a colonial modernity that divides the world into civilized (white/aligned) and barbaric (non-white/independent) nations. From the 1953 coup to the 2026 bombing of schoolchildren, the through-line is clear: the West will not tolerate resource sovereignty in the hands of non-white peoples.

To oppose this war requires more than anti-war activism. It requires the dismantling of the ideological architecture that makes such wars thinkable—the racial hierarchies, the exceptionalist theologies, the media frameworks that render some children worthy of mourning and others merely statistics.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz under international law, the breaking of international law by Israel and the U.S., the bombing of universities and hospitals—these are not separate issues. They are facets of a single system of domination that must be named, confronted, and dismantled.

The war is not about nuclear weapons. It is about who has the right to exist, to govern, and to benefit from the planet’s energy source. Until we confront the white supremacy at its core, the bombs will continue to fall.


For the children of Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School. For the memory of Mossadegh. For a world where sovereignty is not determined by skin color.

AI generated audio version of this post, below..

Resources

For accurate and largely dispassionate analyses of the Iran war and international affairs generally, try Youtube interviews with Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, Alastair Crooke, Prof. John Mearscheimer, Prof. Glenn Diesen, Colonel Larry Wilkerson, and Larry Johnson.

The Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis (PSH): Have Humans Bred Hollow Societies?

🧠

Imagine a world where the most charming, risk-taking, and empathy-deficient individuals don’t just survive — they thrive. Not just in movies, but in boardrooms, parliaments, and even dating apps. This isn’t a dystopian fantasy. According to the Psychological Selection Hypothesis, it’s happening now- as it always has in homo sapiens history


🔍 What Is the Psychological Selection Hypothesis?

The hypothesis suggests that modern society selectively rewards psychopathic traits — emotional detachment, manipulative charm, risk-taking, and dominance — especially in complex, competitive, and symbolic systems like finance, politics, and corporate leadership.

Rather than being a rare pathology, psychopathy becomes a strategic ‘positive’ adaptation in environments where:

  • Empathy is a liability
  • Image matters more than integrity
  • Short-term wins outweigh long-term consequences

Over time, these traits are reinforced, replicated, and even romanticized, shaping institutions and cultural norms in their image.


🧬 The Feedback Loop: How It Works

  1. Biological Selection
    In high-competition environments, individuals with psychopathic traits often achieve higher status and reproductive success. Studies show that corporate executives score significantly higher on psychopathy measures than the general population . These individuals are more likely to attract partners, gain visibility, and pass on their genes — subtly shifting the population toward these traits.
  2. Institutional Reinforcement
    Once in power, they reshape systems to reward their own traits. Organizations become hierarchies where:
  • Loyalty is extracted, not earned
  • Ethical behaviour is performative, not practiced
  • Emotional detachment is seen as “strong leadership”
    The result? A culture where empathy is weakness, and manipulation is mastery and where might (and violence) becomes right

Cultural Normalization
Media and social platforms amplify this. From TV anti-heroes to influencer culture, we glorify narcissistic charisma and strategic coldness. Phrases like “fake it till you make it” or “it’s just business” become mantras of success — masking moral disengagement as maturity.


    🧨 The Psychological Fallout

    As these traits become normalized, mental health deteriorates

    • Depression and anxiety increase dramatically
    • Social trust erodes
    • Loneliness becomes a global health risk, (comparable to smoking 15 cigarettes a day).

    Even those not psychopathic are forced to emulate its traits to survive — suppressing empathy, over-performing, and internalizing stress. This creates a psychologically hollow society, where emotional depth is discouraged and relational fatigue is the norm.


    🧯 Can We Break the Cycle?

    Yes — but only if we interrupt the feedback loops:

    • Reform institutional incentives to reward cooperation, not conquest and violence
    • Promote emotional literacy in education and leadership training
    • Challenge cultural narratives that glorify ruthlessness
    • Support mental health infrastructure that values vulnerability and empathy

    The presence of individuals with psychopathic and sociopathic traits in positions of power, often referred to as “corporate psychopaths” or “successful psychopaths,” is a phenomenon with profound and measurable negative impacts on organisations and society. We analyse this impact, focusing on the explanatory framework provided by the Psychological Selection Hypothesis (PSH) .

    The Psychological Selection Hypothesis posits that the traits associated with psychopathy—such as emotional detachment, manipulativeness, superficial charm, and fearlessness—are not merely adaptive to modern complex systems, but have actively shaped the very architecture of those systems .

    As human societies evolved from direct, tribal reciprocity to abstract, globalized, and neoliberal socioeconomic structures, psychopathic cognition is likely to have played a foundational role in guiding the emergence of ‘civilisational’ structures cultures and norms .

    These structures create a self-reinforcing feedback loop that structurally and biologically selects for psychopathic traits. The traits that enable an individual to thrive in abstract, opaque, and competitive environments—namely, the ability to exploit others without remorse and prioritize symbolic dominance—are mistaken for “leadership qualities” .

    The PSH suggests that civilization itself increasingly mirrors the mind of a high-functioning psychopath, leading to systems optimized for power and short-term gain, but which are fundamentally maladaptive for long-term civilizational sustainability, such as ecological stewardship and intergenerational care .

    Prevalence in Leadership

    While psychopathy is estimated to affect approximately 1% of the general population, its prevalence is significantly higher in senior leadership roles, a finding that supports the PSH’s core tenet of selection .

    Population GroupEstimated Prevalence of Psychopathic Traits
    General Population~1%
    Corporate Executives12% to 20% (up to 1 in 5)
    National Political Leaders 12% to 25% (plus!)

    This over-representation suggests that the modern corporate and political environment, with its emphasis on ruthless competition and short term results, acts as a powerful filter, selecting for individuals who possess these “dark traits” .

    Impact on Organizations and Employees

    The influence of psychopathic leaders, often grouped under the Dark Triad of personality (narcissism, Machiavellianism, and psychopathy), is overwhelmingly detrimental to organizational health and employee well-being .

    Organizational Decline

    Research consistently links the presence of corporate psychopaths to organizational decline, particularly in the long term .

    Area of ImpactConsequence of Psychopathic Leadership
    Financial PerformanceLong-term revenue decline; psychopathic fund managers have been found to generate annual returns 30% lower than their peers over a 10-year period .
    Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)Stifled sustainability efforts and reduced commitment to CSR, as these conflict with the leader’s short-term, self-serving interests .
    Organizational CultureIncreased conflict, bullying, and the creation of a psychologically unsafe work environment .
    Innovation and CreativityDecline in employee creativity and organizational commitment due to fear and lack of motivation .

    Employee Well-being

    The psychological impact on subordinates is severe. Perceived psychopathic traits in supervisors are directly correlated with negative outcomes for employees .

    “The results illustrate the effects of perceived psychopathic traits in supervisors on employee well-being… The ‘dark side’ of leadership has been the topic of considerable research over the years” .

    The consequences include increased workplace stress and significant levels of emotional exhaustion . Studies have also found that female employees, in particular, may experience a stronger influence of leader psychopathy on their levels of emotional exhaustion .

    Socio-Economic and Institutional Impact

    At a macro level, the PSH provides a framework for understanding how psychopathic leadership contributes to systemic issues, most notably financial misconduct and economic inequality.

    Financial Misconduct and Fraud

    The core psychopathic traits of lack of remorse and manipulativeness make these leaders prone to engaging in unethical and illegal activities. High-profile cases, such as the multi-billion dollar Ponzi scheme orchestrated by Bernie Madoff, are often cited as prime examples of financial psychopathy .

    The pursuit of power and profit without ethical constraint leads to manipulative accounting practices . This behavior is not merely individual but is often facilitated by weak external accountability mechanisms, allowing unethical financial behaviors to become institutionalized .

    Reinforcement of Economic Inequality

    The theoretical framework suggests that Dark Triad leaders exploit financial reporting systems for personal or organizational gain at the meso-level, which in turn exacerbates economic inequalities at the broader macro-level . By prioritizing self-enrichment and short-term gains, these leaders contribute to a system where wealth is concentrated at the top, often at the expense of long-term stability and social equity. Some research suggests that psychopathic leaders may even be willing to “spark a financial crisis for profit” .

    Conclusion

    The research strongly supports the view that the overrepresentation of psychopathic and sociopathic traits in leadership positions is a significant problem, explained in part by the Psychological Selection Hypothesis. While these traits may facilitate a rapid ascent up the corporate or political ladder—often by mimicking desirable qualities like confidence and decisiveness—the long-term impact is one of organizational decay, employee distress, and systemic socio-economic harm.

    Addressing this issue requires not only better screening for leadership roles but also a fundamental re-evaluation of the values and metrics that currently define and select for “successful” leadership in modern institutions.

    The Psychological Selection Hypothesis doesn’t claim that all leaders are psychopaths — or that psychopathy is the only path to success. But it warns us that when we build systems that reward the coldest minds, we shouldn’t be surprised when the world starts to feel colder.

    Let’s stop selecting for the traits that destroy us — and start training and selecting leaders who can not only sustain the other homo sapiens who rely on them, but help to collaboratively create a sustainable world.

    References

    [1] Greg Elliott. The Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis: Evolutionary Fitness in the Age of Collapse. Medium.

    [2] Floriana Irtelli and Enrica Durbano. Successful Psychopaths: A Contemporary Phenomenon. IntechOpen.

    [3] C. Mathieu, C. S. Neumann, R. D. Hare, and P. Babiak. A dark side of leadership: Corporate psychopathy and its influence on employee well-being and job satisfaction. Personality and Individual Differences.

    [4] M. D’Souza and D. Oliveira. Corporate Psychopaths: implications for organizational health and well-being. European Journal of Public Health.

    [5] B. Sheehy. Corporate law and corporate psychopaths. PMC.

    [6] V. Lipman. The Disturbing Link Between Psychopathy And Leadership. Forbes.

    [7] C. R. Boddy. Psychopathic Leadership A Case Study of a Corporate Psychopath CEO. Journal of Business Ethics.

    [8] Anglia Ruskin University (ARU). Psychopaths would spark a financial crisis for profit. ARU News.

    [9] Henley Business School. Are psychopath leaders stifling sustainability and business transformation? Henley News.

    [10] S. Latif, M. Z. Alam, M. A. Aziz, and F. Saif. The role of dark triad leadership in manipulative accounting, accountability mechanism and economic inequality reinforcement: a theoretical approach. International Journal of Ethics and Systems.

    [11] Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis Book – Medium


    [12] The Psychopathic Selection Hypothesis: Evolutionary Fitness – Medium

    False Outrage

    Western commentators continue to express outrage about Trump’s latest international adventures: Nigeria, Venezuela and more particularly Ukraine and Greenland ( because they have ‘good white’ populations.

    I was struck by an Australian Broadcasting analysis of 11th January 2026 which stated, without a hint of irony, that Trump had assaulted the ‘once enshrined concept of national sovereignty, overthrowing eight decades of rigidly enforced global order.

    Obviously the analyst didnt understand the concept of history, or perhaps was born less than decade ago. The United States since its inception has been launching wars of extreme savagery and brutality ( something the Israelis seem to have inherited from them and the UK) . From the extermination of North American Indians, the Phillipines genocide in 1898, the many many wars in South America over the past 200 years to install compliant dictatorships, to the post second world war killing spree, with CIA endless covert murders across the world, the Korean War genocide, then on to the wars in Vietnam, Cambodia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, there has most certainly not been 8 decades of peace because of the West’s global world order!! (or the ‘International Rule Based Order ‘ if you prefer (i.e. the US rules and you obey)

    Trump’s attempts at a land-grab of Greenland, along with trying to plunder Venezuelan oil and supporting Israel’s imminent (second) war against Iran are simply just a continuation of America’s foreign (and internal) policy since its inception in 1792.

    U.S. analysts decry Trump and his coterie for undermining democracy and freedom and not wanting to be an empire like the 19th century European powers, frequently quoting statements made by the U.S.’s founding fathers like Jefferson and Washington. Those analysts use the founding fathers statements and quotes from the American Constitution as proof that the US is essentially a ‘good’ nation.

    What analysts in the US particularly object to about Trump and his thuggish entourage, is that they are saying the things that they have themselves always really believed in, OUT LOUD.

    Perhaps those founding Fathers believed in the things they were saying, but the evidence suggests they were trying to create a country where the wealthy and landowning civilised ‘white’ (really pink) class could live in peace without threats from the uncivilised darker peoples of the world. And naturally, because those peoples were uncivilised it made perfect sense for the US military to treat them as sub-human.’Humanity’ was reserved for the white-skinned folks. Trump and his racist coterie and oligarchs are therefore, the continuation of a long lineage of theft and thuggery.

    We should be careful though to emphasise that the other pink ‘ruling classes” of the world also subscribe to this obscene and absurd view. The EU ex head of EU ‘diplomacy’ Josep Borrell’s statement in 2022 that “Europe is a garden. Most of the rest of the world is a jungle. The jungle could invade the garden” is a classic example of this racist ignorant ideology.

    Borrell seemed to have forgotten that the only reason Europe had had- up till then at least, been a ‘garden’ is because it had murdered and plundered its way through most of the global south over the past 500 years and used those resources to create Europe’s safe and pretty garden. Ironically, Europe now relies economically on the non-pink migrants it has brutally forced from their homelands for its cheap labour and maintaining its GDP.

    Similarly and with great irony, what helped to make “America Great” in previous times was the enormous number of immigrants from ‘pink’ Europe.

    Trump and his ‘administration’ are now attempting, with great lawless brutality, to cut off that very lifeblood of immigration to US simply because they are now the wrong colour. In Trump’s desperate attempt to ‘Make America White Again’, that cheap labour, which as of late 2025, made up approximately 19% of the total U.S. labour force, is now under threat, thus undermining the very basis of US agriculture and industry. One is reminded of Australia’s attempts for 50 years to to keep Australia ( besides the ‘sub-human’ indigenous aboriginal population) ‘safe’ for Europeans using their “White Australia” policies.

    With the meteoric rise of China as a global economic power and its vastly superior research and industrial base, the West is under massive threat to its global dominance. China expands its opportunities for wealth, not through Western-style theft and subjugation, but through contracts and mutual agreements. The Belt and Road initiative is a classic example of this practice.

    In theory the US and the West could realign their foreign policies to work alongside China and the Global South to develop cooperative and mutually beneficial trade, while reducing the threat of war.

    This however does not seem to be an option for the US or the rest of the West. 500 years of exploitation and murder have paralysed Western decision-making and innovative thinking.

    The Role of Racism in Western Colonialism: A Historical & Contemporary Analysis

    Racism was not a side-effect of empire—it was its operating system. From the 15th-century “Age of Discovery” to 21st-century border regimes, racial hierarchies have justified land theft, slavery, resource extraction and permanent war.

    We outline how racism powered colonialism—and why it still shapes our world, as we see in the large recent populist responses in Europe and the US to immigration from non-white countries.

    I would argue that we are, as human beings, inherently racist. We cherish the human group we belong to; the way we look, the way our group behaves, the things that are important to us. Those that look, and/or behave differently to us are therefore not ‘one of us”- they are outsiders, a threat to us and our group’s safety and wellbeing. Who we are is ‘normal’ – those ‘others’ are not normal.

    That defensiveness against ‘others’, I would argue, is the root of racism. While that fear response may be deeply imbedded in our psyche, it can, and must be rooted out with clear rationality and understanding for those ‘others’. If we are to be truly human, we must treat all other living things with the kindness and compassion we expect for ourselves.

    Conquest Begins with Name-Calling: “Savage” as a Licence to Kill

    Greek and Roman writers already labelled outsiders “barbarians”, but the Atlantic world turned prejudice into policy. English colonisers depicted the Gaelic Irish as dark-skinned degenerates; Spaniards painted Indigenous Americans as cannibals; Dutch and Portuguese traders recast West Africans as “beasts of burden”. Once economic incentives for plantation slavery exploded, stereotypes hardened: Africans were now naturally servile, sexually voracious, mentally inferior—and therefore made for slavery. The perjorative demeaning language used to describe non-whites by ‘white’ people across the world is no accident. Language defines..

    In the 21st Century, non-white immigrants to Western countries are seen as a threat to European ‘values’ culture and economic wellbeing. Current immigrant levels to the US and Europe are a direct result of economic and safety destabilisations caused by earlier extractive colonial policies and the West’s immensely destructive wars in those countries. In addition, Western governments, as opposed to their ‘white’ populations, have welcomed these new cheap labour immigrants to bolster their GDPs.

    “Scientific” Racism: Empire in a White Lab-Coat

    19-century European universities measured skulls, mapped skin tones and coined terms like “Caucasoid” to give racism the veneer of objectivity. The Dawinian science of evolution was used to delineate some human ‘races’ as less genetically evolved, with of course the white races at the top! This absurd and unscientific use of evolution were used by many in the West and exploited in the eugenics movement, and in its extreme form by the Nazis, and latterly the Zionists.

    3. Britain’s ‘Liberal’ Empire

    “Violence was not a one-off occurrence… it was systemic and part and parcel of Britain’s liberal imperialism.”– ‘Legacy of Violence-
    A History of the British Empire’ Caroline Elkins (2023)

    In the 19th century, Medical journals warned that “negro lungs” were unfit for cold climates to help justify keeping indentured labourers on Caribbean sugar plantations. Anthropology museums displayed colonised peoples alongside fauna. These ‘scientific’ findings were incorporated into colonial legal codes: the 1885 Berlin Conference carved up Africa on the assumption that Whites could best steward African land and bodies. Britain’s ‘protectorates’ listed below are a ‘sublime’ example of the racist mentality of the British Foreign Office. Why these populations would need ‘protecting’ from themselves was never adequately explained…

    TerritoryProtectorate proclaimedToday part of …
    Malta1800Malta
    Ionian Islands1815Greece
    Mosquito Coast1838Nicaragua / Honduras
    Aden (W. & E. Protectorates)1872Yemen
    Cyprus1878Cyprus
    Sultanate of Zanzibar1890Tanzania
    Bechuanaland1885Botswana
    British Somaliland1884Somalia
    North Borneo1888Malaysia (Sabah)
    Brunei1888Brunei
    Sarawak1888Malaysia
    Maldives1887Maldives
    Sikkim1861India
    Barotseland1900Zambia
    East Africa Protectorate1895Kenya
    Uganda Protectorate1894Uganda
    Nyasaland1893Malawi
    Northern Rhodesia1924Zambia
    Swaziland1903Eswatini
    Basutoland1868Lesotho
    Gambia Protectorate1894The Gambia
    Sierra Leone Protectorate1896Sierra Leone
    Nigeria (N. & S. protectorates)1900Nigeria
    Qatar1916Qatar
    Bahrain1861Bahrain
    Trucial Oman1887UAE
    Cook Islands1888New Zealand (self-governing)
    Niue1900New Zealand (self-governing)
    Tokelau1889New Zealand
    British Solomon Is.1893Solomon Islands
    Gilbert & Ellice Is.1892Kiribati & Tuvalu
    Tonga1879Tonga
    Oman (Muscat & Oman)1800Oman
    Bhutan1911Bhutan

    From Kenya’s “Pipeline” detention camps to Malaya’s New Villages, London cast mass incarceration, forced labour and sexual violence as “rehabilitation” for racially suspect subjects. Files were then sealed for decades under the Colonial Papers Destruction Policy.

    Comparative Brutality: France, Belgium, Germany


    • French Algeria: Settler colonialism embedded in the département system; with 1.5 million Algerians killed during the 1954-62 war of independence (Al-Jazeera retrospective).

    • Belgian Congo: Leopold II’s rubber regime caused an estimated 10 million deaths—A BBC investigation calls it “one of the greatest mass murders in history”.

    • German South-West Africa: 1904-08 extermination order against the Herero and Nama is now officially recognised by Germany as genocide.

    British India: current scholarship puts the excess-mortality death toll attributable to British colonial policy in India between 1881-1920 alone at roughly 50–165 million people.

    Racism after the Empires Recede

    Decolonisation brought new flags, but not justice. The UN confirms that “colonialism lives on” in racial profiling, poverty and unequal trade. Former plantation economies still dominate global commodity chains, even while end-use processing for value addition to those raw commodities continues to happen in the Global North. France’s banlieues, Britain’s Windrush deportations, and the U.S. racial wealth gap all map precisely onto old imperial shipping routes.

    Environment Impacts of Racism

    The climate crisis is driven by the same extractive logic that cleared forests for sugar and cotton. Former colonies already suffer temperature increases twice the global average—a direct legacy of shipping carbon to Europe while deforesting the colonies’ natural environment- that same natural world many indigenous populations relied upon for their survival.

    Towards Reparatory Justice

    • Unveiling the Truth: Ensure that all colonial archives are opened to the public and for research (UK still classifies this information under the “migrated archives” rule).
    • Reparations: From debt cancellation to technology transfers—see UN-DESA Policy Brief #96 along with fair funding reparations from ex colonial powers for their brutality and economic extraction.
    • Education: Develop truthful, accurate and non-ideologically driven curricula for each ex-colonial country and its coloniser which explains the rationales and impacts of racism and consequent colonialism from each side.

    Palestine 2023-25: A Live-Streamed Genocide Enabled by Racialised Imperial Logic

    The same racial logic that once classified Indigenous peoples as “savages” and Africans as “natural slaves” is now redeployed to portray Palestinians—especially in Gaza—as irredeemable terrorists whose lives are expendable. Western diplomatic, financial and military support for Israel’s 2023-25 assault is therefore not an aberration; it is the continuity of a 500-year-old pattern in which white-majority states licence settler violence against racialised “others” while declaring themselves civilised.

    Genocide is apparently what “non-white” actors commit; white or white-allied states are presumed incapable of it. Western media highlights Israeli “security” and terrorists’ ‘hostages’ while Palestinian deaths are counted in opaque “casualty” statistics, stripped of names, faces, context, and their 70 + years living under Israeli colonisation completely ignored. Bizarrely, peaceful protesters against Israeli savagery in Gaza in France, Germany, Britain and the US, among many, have themselves been labelled as terrorists and arrested.


    France banned pro-Palestine demonstrations within days; police invoked emergency powers against students wearing the keffiyeh. The UK Home Secretary equated Palestinian flags with “support for terrorism”. Germany’s Berlin Senate excluded Palestinian speakers under the IHRA definition. These measures show how racialised imperial violence abroad is coupled with shrinking anti-racist space at home.

    Trump’s ‘War’ on Immigration

    The role of racism in Donald Trump’s immigration agenda is not incidental—it is the engine. From his 2015 campaign launch to the executive orders signed on Day 1 of his second term, Trump has consistently racialised immigrants, fused white-nationalist grievance with policy, and leveraged state power to punish Black, Brown and Muslim communities. Bizarrely the United States economic growth has historically largely been fuelled by immigration- but only immigration from the ‘right’ places; from Western Europe.

    Trump’s language about immigrants betrays the racist underpinnings of his anti-immigration policies -‘“These aren’t people. These are animals” (referring to Central-American migrants), “Shithole countries” (Jan 2018): Trump asked why the US admits people from Haiti, El Salvador or Africa instead of Norway..

    Such statements activate what scholars call “demographobia”: the fear among whites that they are being “replaced” by higher-fertility non-white minorities.

    The Great Replacement theory—the belief that elites are deliberately replacing whites with non-white immigrants—moved from far-right chatrooms to Trump’s 2025 National Emergency declaration, which frames migration as an “invasion” threatening “national character”.

    Further Reading & Tools

    All links open in a new tab. Bookmark this list for classroom or activist use.

    Feel free to republish under Creative Commons CC-BY-SA 4.0 with attribution to the author and a live link to this post.

    When the Last Tree Falls

    The vital importance of humans connecting to nature: for themselves and for the planet

    “In every walk with nature one receives far more than he seeks.”
    —John Muir

    Muir’s century-old observation now reads like a medical prescription. A growing body of research shows that regular contact with living, biodiverse ecosystems is a non-negotiable pillar of human health—and the fastest way to make people care about the twin crises of biodiversity loss and climate change.

    This post unpacks (1) what happens to our bodies and minds when we lose everyday nature, (2) how collapsing ecosystems ricochet back on us, and (3) the personal and collective actions that turn concern into meaningful response.

    As the world’s rapidly expanding human population increasingly no longer lives in proximity to our living world- but instead is surrounded by concrete, tar and walled environments, and enclosed within self-defined technological walls of social media, AI and self-selected ‘entertainment’, we are losing both our vital connection with the rest of the natural world we are intrinsically part of, along with our unconscious understanding of its importance to us.

    In doing so, we become less and less aware how the natural world is shrinking inexorably year by year, decade by decade, day by day, and what that means for both ourselves and our world, in terms of our wellbeing and our very survival.

    Each new generation of humans normalise a poorer natural baseline, lowering conservation ambition and stabilising acceptance of biodiversity loss as the ‘norm’. Along with those changes of what is ‘naturally normal’, cultural definitions of ‘nature’ shift over time ( e.g. Wordsworth’s early 19th century poems vs. today’s TikTok hiking videos).

    Reduced biodiversity means millions of people face a future where food supplies are more vulnerable to pests and disease, and where fresh water is in problematic supply.

    As climate extremes intensify with climate change, the impacts of both floods and droughts are magnified from loss of tree cover.


    The 30-Minute Cure: How Daily Green & Blue (aquatic)Time Rewires Us

    DomainEvidence-Based Benefits of Frequent Nature Contact
    PhysicalLower cortisol, heart-rate variability, blood pressure; stronger immunity (natural killer-cell activity up 50 % after a 3-day forest trip) .
    MentalReduced risk of depression, anxiety and ADHD; restored “directed attention” capacity (Attention Restoration Theory) .
    SocialHigher empathy, pro-social behavior, lower crime rates in neighborhoods with tree cover .
    Spiritual / CulturalSense of identity and belonging, especially for Indigenous and rural communities tied to specific species and landscapes .

    Dose–response sweet spot: Two hours per week in green or blue spaces (parks, coastlines, riverbanks) delivers optimal well-being gains .

    The Flip Side: Nature-Deficit Disorder

    When that contact disappears, we see the inverse—rising obesity, Type-2 diabetes, myopia in children, loneliness, and eco-anxiety. Urban populations already spend 90 % of their time indoors; in lower-income areas, unequal access to safe nature is a new axis of health inequity. Little data is available on the impact of nature deprivation in the Global South.

    In countries where daily life is entangled with nature (smallholder farming, forest reliance), disconnection manifests differently—often as loss of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) rather than park visits.


    What Biodiversity Loss Actually Costs Us

    Biodiversity is the planet’s operating system. Every lost species is a deleted line of code.

    Every living thing: every individual fish, every insect, every bird every mammal, has its own intrinsic worth. Its ‘value’ is simply in its existence.

    A. Health & Medicine

    • 70 % of anti-cancer drugs are natural or bio-inspired; 60 % of all new infectious diseases are zoonotic and surge when habitat edges fragment .
    • Traditional medicine—used by 80 % of people in developing countries—depends on intact ecosystems .

    B. Food & Water Security

    • Pollinator decline already threatens crops worth US $235 billion annually .
    • Wetlands loss (35 % since 1970) has left >2 billion people with declining water quality and rising water-borne disease .

    C. Climate Stability

    • Forests, peatlands and mangroves store more carbon than all human emissions from 2009–2018 combined. When biodiversity unravels, these sinks flip to sources, accelerating extreme weather that in turn wipes out more species .

    D. Positive Impacts of Human Skin Contact with Soil

    Regular, safe skin contact with biodiverse, uncontaminated soil—gardening, barefoot walking, forest play etc, rewilds the human microbiome, trains the immune system and supports mental well-being.

    1. Immune-System Maturation
    Finnish daycare study: children playing on forest-floor (soil-rich) yards had more diverse skin & gut microbiota and stronger immune regulation two years later. Nature 2024
    2. Anti-inflammatory Response
    Urban adults handling microbially-rich indoor potting soil for one month showed ↑ plasma IL-10 (anti-inflammatory cytokine) and ↑ skin bacterial diversity (Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, etc.). Environment International 2024
    3. Immediate Skin Microbiome Boost
    Just two minutes of rubbing hands with soil & plant materials produced an instant increase in skin microbial richness (Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, etc.) that lasted several hours. Frontiers 2025
    4. Gut Microbiome Support
    Mice exposed to non-sterile soil developed higher gut microbial diversity than those on sterile soil, indicating that dermal/oral transfer of soil microbes reaches the intestine. NIH PMC 2019
    5. Vaccine Response Enhancement
    Adults with daily soil-moss skin contact mounted stronger cell-mediated responses to pneumococcal vaccine (higher IFN-γ, IL-17), suggesting soil exposure can improve vaccine efficacy.
    Nature 2024
    6. Mental-Health & Stress Reduction
    Soil bacterium Mycobacterium vaccae triggers anti-neuroinflammatory pathways, lowers stress hormones and may improve mood via the gut-brain axis. New York Times 2024

    E. Mental & Cultural Resilience

    • Coastal or forest communities displaced by fires, floods or coral bleaching lose livelihoods and ancestral stories, triggering inter-generational trauma .

    Turning Contact into Commitment: The Feedback Loop That Matters

    Every exposure to a thriving wild patch biophilically primes the brain. Here’s how to restore that effect:

    Personal Practice

    1. Micro-dose daily: 10 minutes of exposure to tree canopy or moving water (even street trees count).
    2. Citizen science: Log birds, insects or plants on iNaturalist—data that feeds real conservation maps.
    3. Nature journaling: Sketching or photographing a leaf or shell deepens attention and memory encoding.

    Community Action

    • Green prescriptions: Doctors in the U.K., New Zealand and Japan now write “green prescriptions” alongside statins . National pilots of green prescriptions in Scotland (2021) and Canada (2022).
    • Schoolyard biodiversity: Converting asphalt to mini-forests improves test scores and doubles local insect diversity within three years .
    • Urban rewilding: Pocket meadows, living walls and daylighted streams cool cities, cut AC demand and give residents daily wildlife encounters. Barcelona’s “Green Axes” programme is a great initiative.
    • Biodiverse botanic parks where people of all ages and ability can explore and learn about our natural green world.
    • Plant native trees in your own backyard- replace that lawn you mow!

    Policy & Economy

    Why the biodiversity decline matters for climate action

    PathwayMechanismEvidence
    Environmental behaviourHigher NCI (Nature Connection Index) predicts pro-environmental choices (diet, transport, donations).Martin et al., 2020, J. Environ. Psychol.
    Biophilic policy supportIndividuals with strong nature connection are 2× more likely to back ambitious conservation funding.Mackay & Schmitt, 2019, Conserv. Lett.
    Psychological resilienceNature connection buffers eco-anxiety; enables sustained activism.Whitburn et al., 2020, Climatic Change
    Feedback loopShifting baseline syndrome: each generation normalises a poorer natural baseline, lowering conservation ambition.Papworth et al., 2009, Trends Ecol. Evol.

    A Thought Experiment

    Imagine the last dawn chorus on Earth: no birds, no insects, just human-made noise.
    Now rewind the tape. Plant one native tree outside your window this month. Spend 30 undistracted minutes beside it each week. Listen.

    Your nervous system will notice the difference within days.
    Your neurons will start lobbying your choices.
    And the planet will register one more caretaker.

    When we experience how nature heals us, we finally understand that healing nature is self-defense.


    References

    Richardson, M., Dobson, J., Abson, D. J., Lumber, R., Hunt, A., & Young, R. (2020) Nature connectedness in decline: Evidence from 5000 English adults 2013-2019. People and Nature, 2(3), 821–835. https://doi.org/10.1002/pan3.10146

    Richardson, M., Hunt, A., Hinds, J., Bragg, R., Fido, D., Petronzi, D., … & White, M. P. (2019) A measure of nature connectedness for children and adults: Validation, reliability and associations with well-being. PLoS ONE, 14(7), e0218641. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0218641

    7 Consequences of Biodiversity Loss for Humans: gaiacompany.io.

    WWF: How does Biodiversity loss affect me and everyone else? Reduced biodiversity means millions of people face a future where food supplies are more vulnerable to pests and disease, and where fresh water is in irregular

    Royal Society: What is the human impact on biodiversity? How do humans affect biodiversity? · Deforestation. · Habitat loss through pervasive, incremental encroachment such as that caused by urban sprawl.

    thrivabilitymatters.org 2023/04/14: How do humans affect biodiversity? The Importance Of Contact With Nature For Well-Being. Spending time in nature, or mingling with a natural element has tremendous effects on physical, mental, social and spiritual wellness.

    United Nations Foundation 2023/05/18: How Biodiversity Loss Harms Human Health. A higher risk of infectious outbreaks is just one of the many repercussions of biodiversity loss on human health.

    Biodiversity loss can have significant direct health impacts if ecosystem services no longer meet societal needs.

    World Health Organization (WHO) 2023/10/12: Climate change is directly contributing to humanitarian emergencies from heatwaves, wildfires, floods, tropical storms and hurricanes.

    Mental Health Foundation(U.K.): How connecting with nature benefits our mental health. Research shows that people who are more connected with nature are usually happier in life and more likely to report feeling their lives are worthwhile.

    US EPA impacts to human health: Climate Change; City of Chicago: Overview – Temperature Impacts – Air Quality Impacts – Extreme Events – Vector-borne Diseases – Water-Related Illnesses – Food Safety and Nutrition – Mental Health – Populations of Concern – Other Health Impacts.

    American Psychological Association 2020/04/01: Nurtured by nature. Exposure to nature has been linked to a host of benefits, including improved attention, lower stress, better mood, & reduced risk of psychiatric disorders.

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Climate Change and Human Health | US EPA: This includes increasing the risk of extreme heat events and heavy storms, increasing the risk of asthma attacks and changing the spread of certain diseases .

    LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY: THE BURGEONING THREAT TO HUMAN HEALTH: O Adebayo · 2019 · Mencionado — the loss of biological biodiversity appears to affect significantly human health.

    Impact of Contact With Nature on the Wellbeing and Nature Connectedness Indicators After a Desertic Outdoor Experience on Isla Del Tiburon by G Garza-Terán · 2022 · Cited by 23 — Results show that both wellbeing and Nature Connectedness are positively influenced by performing activities out in the natural environment.nih.gov2024/05/24

    Climate change impacts on health across the life course: The climate crisis results in new disorders such as eco-anxiety and solastalgia. Older people also experience adverse brain effects

    Effects of Climate Change on Health – CDC: The health effects of these disruptions include increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease, injuries and premature deaths related to extreme weather .

    UC Davis Health2023/05/03: 3 ways getting outside into nature helps improve your health. Research continues to show that being outside and experiencing nature can improve our mental health and increase our ability to focus.

    Arizona Health Sciences2023/04/03: A look at the cost of climate change on human health. The evidence is clear – climate change is having a negative effect on our physical and mental health.

    ScienceDirect: Natural environments improve parent-child communication by T Cameron-Faulkner · 2018 · Cited by 84 — In this study, natural environments influenced social interactions between parents and children by increasing connected, responsive communication.

    The global human impact on biodiversity F Keck · 2025 · Mencionado por 37 — We show that human pressures distinctly shift community composition and decrease local diversity across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems.

    Benefits for emotional regulation of contact with nature by ML Ríos-Rodríguez · 2024 · Cited by 15 — Exposure to natural environments, such as parks, forests, and green areas, is often linked to a decrease in stress, anxiety and depression.

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: Climate change impacts –

    Climate change impacts our society in many different ways. Drought can harm food production and human health. Flooding can lead to spread of disease, death, …

    Universidad Veracruzana: Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity. The impacts of diversity loss on ecological processes might be sufficiently large to rival the impacts of many other global drivers of environmental change.

    Friends of the Earth2020/09/23Importance of nature. For children and adults alike, daily contact with nature is linked to better health, less stress, better mood, reduced obesity – an amazing list ..

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Climate Change Impacts on Health | US EPA Climate change can disrupt access to health care services, threaten infrastructure, and pose physical and mental health risks.

    United Nations: Five ways the climate crisis impacts human security

    United Nations University2024/05/16: Understanding Humanity’s Role in Biodiversity Loss Losing species threatens our well-being. As we lose species, our ecosystems also lose genetic diversity.

    Science Mission Directorate2024/10/23: The Causes of Climate Change – NASA Science. The greenhouse effect is essential to life on Earth, but human-made emissions in the atmosphere are trapping and slowing heat loss to space.

    ScienceDirect: Modelling human influences on biodiversity at a global scale–A human ecology perspective M Cepic · 2022 · Mencionado — Globalised human interventions cause most biodiversity losses.


    gaiacompany.io

    7 Consequences of Biodiversity Loss for Humans – Gaia

    1. Food Insecurity · 2. Health Impacts · 3. Loss of Medicinal Resources · 4. Reduced Ecosystem Services · 5. Economic Losses · 6. Climate Instability.WWFHow does Biodiversity loss affect me and everyone else?Reduced biodiversity means millions of people face a future where food supplies are more vulnerable to pests and disease, and where fresh water is in irregular …Royal SocietyWhat is the human impact on biodiversity?How do humans affect biodiversity? · Deforestation. · Habitat loss through pervasive, incremental encroachment such as that caused by urban sprawl · Pollution such …thrivabilitymatters.org2023/04/14The Importance Of Contact With Nature For Well-BeingSpending time in nature, or mingling with a natural element has tremendous effects on physical, mental, social and spiritual wellness.United Nations Foundation2023/05/18How Biodiversity Loss Harms Human HealthA higher risk of infectious outbreaks is just one of the many repercussions of biodiversity loss on human health. By disrupting the delicate …WHO2025/02/18BiodiversityBiodiversity loss can have significant direct health impacts if ecosystem services no longer meet societal needs. Changes in ecosystems can …WHO2023/10/12Climate change – World Health Organization (WHO)Climate change is directly contributing to humanitarian emergencies from heatwaves, wildfires, floods, tropical storms and hurricanes and …Mental Health FoundationNature: How connecting with nature benefits our mental healthResearch shows that people who are more connected with nature are usually happier in life and more likely to report feeling their lives are worthwhile.US EPAimpacts to human health – Climate Change – City of ChicagoOn This Page: – Overview – Temperature Impacts – Air Quality Impacts – Extreme Events – Vectorborne Diseases – Water-Related Illnesses – Food Safety and Nutrition – Mental Health – Populations of Concern – Other Health Impacts — Overview The impacts of climate change include warming temperatures, changes in precipitation, increases in the frequency or intensity of some extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. These impacts threaten our health by affecting the food we eat, the water we drink, the air we breathe, and the weather we experience. The severity of these health risks will depend on the ability of public health and safety systems to address or prepare for these changing threats, as well as factors such as an individual’s behavior, age, gender, and economic status. Impacts will vary based on a where a person lives, how sensitive they are to health threats, how much they are exposed to climate change impacts, and how well they andAmerican Psychological Association2020/04/01Nurtured by natureExposure to nature has been linked to a host of benefits, including improved attention, lower stress, better mood, reduced risk of psychiatric disorders and …U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyClimate Change and Human Health | US EPAThis includes increasing the risk of extreme heat events and heavy storms, increasing the risk of asthma attacks and changing the spread of certain diseases …nih.govLOSS OF BIODIVERSITY: THE BURGEONING THREAT TO HUMAN HEALTHpor O Adebayo · 2019 · Mencionado por 28 — While the loss of biological biodiversity appears to affect significantly human health, it has also been opined to be a significant threat to the attainment of …nih.govImpact of Contact With Nature on the Wellbeing and Nature Connectedness Indicators After a Desertic Outdoor Experience on Isla Del Tiburonby G Garza-Terán · 2022 · Cited by 23 — Results show that both wellbeing and Nature Connectedness are positively influenced by performing activities out in the natural environment.nih.gov2024/05/24Climate change impacts on health across the life course – PMCThe climate crisis results in new disorders such as eco-anxiety and solastalgia. Older people also experience adverse brain effects from the …CDC2024/02/29Effects of Climate Change on Health – CDCThe health effects of these disruptions include increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease, injuries and premature deaths related to extreme weather …UC Davis Health2023/05/033 ways getting outside into nature helps improve your healthResearch continues to show that being outside and experiencing nature can improve our mental health and increase our ability to focus.UArizona Health Sciences2023/04/03A look at the cost of climate change on human healthThe evidence is clear – climate change is having a negative effect on our physical and mental health. The scale of the impact is vast, with …ScienceDirectNatural environments improve parent-child communicationby T Cameron-Faulkner · 2018 · Cited by 84 — In this study, natural environments influenced social interactions between parents and children by increasing connected, responsive communication. These …NatureThe global human impact on biodiversitypor F Keck · 2025 · Mencionado por 37 — We show that human pressures distinctly shift community composition and decrease local diversity across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems.nih.govBenefits for emotional regulation of contact with natureby ML Ríos-Rodríguez · 2024 · Cited by 15 — Exposure to natural environments, such as parks, forests, and green areas, is often linked to a decrease in stress, anxiety and depression.National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationClimate change impacts – NOAAClimate change impacts our society in many different ways. Drought can harm food production and human health. Flooding can lead to spread of disease, death, …Universidad VeracruzanaBiodiversity loss and its impact on humanity. Nature PDFThe impacts of diversity loss on ecological processes might be sufficiently large to rival the impacts of many other global drivers of environmental change.Friends of the Earth2020/09/23Importance of natureFor children and adults alike, daily contact with nature is linked to better health, less stress, better mood, reduced obesity – an amazing list …U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyClimate Change Impacts on Health | US EPAClimate change can disrupt access to health care services, threaten infrastructure, and pose physical and mental health risks.Naciones UnidasFive ways the climate crisis impacts human security | United Nations1. Climate change intensifies competition over land and water · 2. Climate change affects food production and drives up hunger · 3. Climate change forces people …United Nations University2024/05/16Understanding Humanity’s Role in Biodiversity LossLosing species threatens our well-being. As we lose species, our ecosystems also lose genetic diversity. This often negatively impacts the …Science Mission Directorate2024/10/23The Causes of Climate Change – NASA ScienceThe greenhouse effect is essential to life on Earth, but human-made emissions in the atmosphere are trapping and slowing heat loss to space.ScienceDirectModelling human influences on biodiversity at a global scale–A human ecology perspectivepor M Cepic · 2022 · Mencionado por 62 — Globalised human interventions cause most biodiversity losses.